AFC East winner: Buffalo Bills at 66% on Kalshi and 64% on Polymarket, Patriots at 30% and 31%

Buffalo leads despite a four-point retreat

The Buffalo Bills remain the market favourite for the 2026 AFC East title, priced at 66% on Kalshi and 64% on Polymarket. The New England Patriots follow at 30% and 31%, respectively, according to iPredicta’s reading on 15 October 2026 at 19:21 UTC.

Buffalo’s average price across the two venues has fallen 4 percentage points since the 9 October 2026 reading. That change measures the movement in the two-platform average, rather than a separate four-point decline on each exchange.

The New York Jets stand at 4% on Kalshi and 3% on Polymarket, while the Miami Dolphins are at 1% on both. The prices leave New England as Buffalo’s principal challenger, with both venues assigning only small chances to the other two teams.

A challenger with the recent title

New England won the division in 2025 and reached Super Bowl LX, according to iPredicta. Buffalo had taken the AFC East title for five consecutive seasons before the Patriots ended that run. The current market ordering therefore favours a Buffalo return to first place rather than another New England division championship.

The venues differ modestly on the leading contenders: Polymarket assigns Buffalo a lower probability and New England a higher one than Kalshi. Neither exchange disagrees about the ranking of the four teams.

At the latest reading, iPredicta reported $59,588 in lifetime trading on Polymarket’s AFC East market and a total book probability of 98.5%. That turnover figure covers the market’s entire life, not just trading since 9 October.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction and ranking tell different stories: Buffalo’s four-point decline in its cross-venue average signals weaker pricing, but the Bills still lead comfortably on both exchanges.
• The disagreement is about degree: Kalshi and Polymarket place the teams in the same order, with only modest differences in their quoted probabilities.
• Keep the measurement window clear: The price change runs from 9 October 2026, while Polymarket’s $59,588 volume is cumulative. It does not establish how much trading accompanied Buffalo’s retreat.