Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour says the real choice is U.S. prediction markets or offshore ones

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour framed the industry’s legal battle as a question of location: whether prediction markets can operate in the United States or instead operate offshore, according to Unchained.

Speaking at DC Fintech Week in Arlington, Mansour argued that the dispute could determine whether the industry has a domestic future at all. His framing puts the ability to operate in the U.S., rather than the existence of prediction markets themselves, at the center of the debate.

Regulation and market oversight

The remarks followed the CFTC’s move, days earlier, to incorporate event contracts into its swap rules, according to Unchained. That regulatory effort provides the backdrop to Mansour’s argument about where the industry will operate.

Mansour also defended the visibility of trading activity as a tool for oversight. According to Unchained, he cited George Santos while arguing that publicly accessible order flow helps reveal misconduct.

What it means for prediction markets

• Domestic access is the central issue in Mansour’s argument. He presented the legal fight as consequential for whether prediction-market activity can remain in the U.S.
• The CFTC’s rulemaking is a separate development to track. Its move to include event contracts in swap rules concerns the regulatory treatment of those markets; Mansour’s remarks do not establish a legal outcome.
• Transparency is part of Kalshi’s case. Mansour’s defense emphasizes detecting misconduct through visible order flow, rather than claiming misconduct cannot occur.