Kalshi College Football Playoff odds put Georgia at 93% and Notre Dame at 92%

Georgia and Notre Dame lead Kalshi’s College Football Playoff qualification market entering Week 7, at 93% and 92%, respectively, according to Kalshi News. The figures reflect market expectations for reaching the playoff, rather than winning the championship.

Miami FL follows at 88%, with Ohio State at 84% and Indiana at 78%. The Oct 15, 2026 update puts those teams ahead of Texas, whose qualification probability stands at 68% after its loss to Oklahoma.

Texas and LSU face tougher paths

Texas remains more likely than not to qualify in the market’s assessment, but its position has weakened. According to Kalshi News, the Longhorns’ probability fell from a peak of 86% to 68% following the Red River Rivalry defeat.

LSU also lost ground after its second defeat against a ranked opponent. Four ranked opponents remain on the Tigers’ schedule, beginning with a home matchup against #16 Mississippi State. Oregon’s probability declined as well, though the supplied update gives no exact figure for either Oregon or LSU.

Big 12 contenders remain closely grouped

Utah is priced at 47%, narrowly ahead of Texas Tech at 46%, while BYU stands at 40%, according to Kalshi News. All three are unbeaten in Big 12 conference play entering Week 7.

Those prices leave each of the three below 50% despite their conference records, contrasting with the much higher qualification expectations attached to Georgia and Notre Dame.

What it means for prediction markets

• Qualification is the relevant outcome: The percentages concern playoff entry, not the eventual national champion.
• Texas illustrates the repricing risk: Its move from a peak of 86% to 68% shows how a defeat can weaken expectations without making qualification the less likely outcome.
• LSU’s remaining schedule is a key watchpoint: Four ranked opponents remain, with #16 Mississippi State next.
• The Big 12 picture is uncertain: Utah, Texas Tech and BYU remain contenders, but none of their quoted probabilities exceeds 50%.