AFC East: Bills clear at 65% on Kalshi, 66% on Polymarket, Patriots gaining

The Buffalo Bills remain the market favourite to win the 2026 AFC East, with a 65% probability on Kalshi and 66% on Polymarket in the 13 October 2026 snapshot at 12:23 UTC. New England is the nearest challenger at 30% and 33%, respectively, according to iPredicta’s market comparison.

The Patriots’ average probability across the two venues has risen 5 percentage points since 6 October 2026. That move strengthens their position as Buffalo’s principal rival, though both exchanges still give the Bills a substantial advantage.

New England gains, but Buffalo stays ahead

The market order points to a potential reversal of last season’s result. New England won the AFC East in 2025 and reached Super Bowl LX, according to iPredicta. Buffalo had won the division for five consecutive seasons before the Patriots ended that run.

The New York Jets sit well behind the leading pair, at 3% on Kalshi and 2% on Polymarket. iPredicta also describes the Miami Dolphins as outsiders, although the supplied material does not include their latest numerical probabilities.

Reading the snapshot

Polymarket’s AFC East market had recorded $58,328 in lifetime trading at the reading, and its full set of probabilities totalled 100.7%, according to iPredicta. The figures are a timestamped comparison rather than live prices; the outlet says it refreshes the readings daily.

The numerical snapshot puts Buffalo slightly higher on Polymarket than on Kalshi, despite accompanying source commentary describing the opposite relationship. The reported 5-point gain for New England measures the change in the average of the two venues’ prices, not necessarily an identical increase on each exchange.

What it means for prediction markets

• Agreement on the favourite: Both venues place Buffalo first and New England second, with little disagreement over the Bills’ probability.
• The challenger is strengthening: New England’s 5-percentage-point average gain since 6 October is the key reported shift, but it has not displaced Buffalo.
• Precision matters: Polymarket’s 100.7% book total and the source’s inconsistent directional commentary make the timestamped figures more useful than broad descriptions of the venue gap.