Eastern Pacific hurricane count market sits near-certain: more than 6 Category 3+ storms at 98c

Eastern Pacific contract reaches 98c

The YES contract on whether the Eastern Pacific will record more than 6 hurricanes of category 3 or above in 2026 stands at 98c, according to PicksByOdds. That price places the market close to certainty on the “Above 6” outcome.

PicksByOdds identifies the change as the largest move in its 146-day archive. YES has gained 65.0 percentage points since tracking began, with $2,289 traded, according to the supplied summary.

A cumulative move, not a daily jump

The update, published Oct 13, 2026 at 11:39 AM ET, describes a change across the archive’s history. It does not establish that the 65.0-percentage-point increase occurred in a single session.

The threshold matters: the contract concerns more than 6 hurricanes reaching category 3 or above in the Eastern Pacific during 2026—not the total number of hurricanes or storms. The supplied material does not provide an observed storm count or explain what drove the repricing.

The summary also distinguishes this weather contract from today’s earlier Isaias item, without supplying further details. PicksByOdds characterizes its alert as a research signal rather than trading advice.

What it means for prediction markets

• Price is not confirmation: A 98c YES price signals strong market confidence, but the supplied reporting does not establish that the threshold has been met.
• The time window is important: The 65.0-percentage-point move spans a 146-day archive and should not be read as an intraday surge.
• Turnover provides limited context: The reported $2,289 traded does not, by itself, establish market depth or explain the move.