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December Fed hike leads market pricing with 77 percent probability

CoinStats lists a 25 basis point increase as the favourite outcome for the December 9 Fed decision at 77 percent, with 122,000 dollars traded in 24 hours across Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi.

According to CoinStats, a 25 basis point increase is the leading outcome for the December 9 Fed decision, priced at 77 percent across prediction venues.

The summary, published Nov 8, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET, puts the focus on expectations for an increase rather than another policy outcome.

Pricing and trading activity

CoinStats lists Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi as the venues covered. It reports 122,000 dollars traded in 24 hours across those markets.

The supplied figures do not break down probabilities or trading volume by venue. They therefore provide a cross-venue snapshot, rather than a basis for comparing pricing or activity on the individual platforms.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 77 percent reading makes a 25 basis point increase the favourite in the reported pricing, not a certain outcome for December 9.
  • The 122,000 dollars in 24-hour volume measures reported trading activity; the summary does not show how that activity was distributed among outcomes.
  • Without venue-level prices or earlier readings, the snapshot does not establish whether expectations are converging across platforms or changing over time.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    CoinStats
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to CoinStats”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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