5kt meteor strike in 2026 priced at 11.5% on Polymarket, down 0.5 points, on $315K traded

A Polymarket contract on a 5kt meteor strike in 2026 was priced at an implied probability of 11.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, with $315K traded in the supplied market snapshot dated Oct 28, 2026, at 6:24 PM ET.

The accompanying news summary identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. It said search results resurfaced material already used that day, assigned to website-only batches or excluded by a banned list. That leaves no fresh reported catalyst in the supplied material to explain the price decline.

What the available data establishes

According to PredictionBubbles, its market data comes from Polymarket and Kalshi and refreshes every 15 minutes, although trading on the venues is continuous. The service defines probability changes as percentage-point moves over the last 24 hours and reports total traded volume where the venue publishes it.

The supplied PredictionBubbles page explains those conventions but does not display the meteor contract itself. The headline provides its price, change and volume; the material does not include the contract’s full wording or resolution criteria. Those omissions limit what can be concluded about precisely which event would qualify for a payout.

What it means for prediction markets

• A modest downward move: The 0.5-point decline leaves the quoted probability at 11.5%; the supplied reporting does not establish why it moved.
• Volume is not a fresh inflow: The $315K figure is reported as traded volume, not money traded during the latest news window.
• Resolution details remain important: Without the contract rules, readers cannot verify how the 5kt threshold or confirmation of a qualifying strike would be assessed.