#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16: Vinted leads at 92% on Polymarket

Vinted leads the Polymarket contract on which app will hold the #2 spot among free apps in the US Apple App Store on October 16, 2026. The headline supplied for the update, published October 16, 2026, at 12:09 AM ET, puts Vinted at 92%, while the accompanying Polymarket material lists 74.5%. The material does not establish the timing of that difference.

Vinted’s chart position anchors the market

According to Polymarket, Vinted held the #2 position on October 15, 2026, after moving up from #3. The peer-to-peer marketplace for secondhand clothing expanded substantially in the US earlier in the year, with adoption supporting its position in the free-app rankings.

Polymarket attributes that growth partly to Vinted’s zero seller fees. It reports millions of US downloads during 2026 and sustained strength in the shopping category, alongside wider interest in resale platforms.

The competing outcomes in the supplied material include various Reserved apps at 50%, ChatGPT at 18% and Muse from Meta at 8.6%. According to Polymarket, Muse from Meta was ranked #1. The platform describes the Reserved entries as possible pre-order or placeholder apps whose positions could change with new releases.

The Polymarket account described resolution as one day away and suggested limited immediate movement without a major app launch or another disruptive announcement. Separately, the supplied summary reported no significant new platform headline in the preceding 15 minutes. Neither observation establishes the final October 16 ranking.

What it means for prediction markets

• The quoted probability is inconsistent across the supplied material. The headline’s 92% and Polymarket account’s 74.5% both place Vinted in front, but should not be treated as a verified price progression without timestamps.
• This is an exact-position contract. Vinted’s reported #2 ranking is directly relevant; Muse from Meta’s reported #1 position illustrates why broader popularity alone does not answer the market’s question.
• Late chart changes remain material. Polymarket identifies new releases as a potential source of movement, particularly for the Reserved entries. The supplied material contains no final resolution.