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Best AI model at year-end: Google and Anthropic just over 40c each, OpenAI at 8c on Polymarket

The year-end book, settled on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, puts Google Gemini and Anthropic Claude as the joint front-runners, with OpenAI a distant third — a distinct…

Google and Anthropic share the lead

Polymarket’s market on the best AI model at the end of 2026 shows Google and Anthropic closely matched, with each priced just above 40c, according to Deadspin. OpenAI trails at 8c.

The snapshot, published Oct 16, 2026 · 12:24 AM ET, places Google Gemini and Anthropic Claude alongside one another as the leading contenders. OpenAI sits a distant third rather than forming part of a closely contested three-way race.

The leaderboard determines the outcome

The market settles against the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, according to the supplied summary of Deadspin’s reporting. That makes the specified ranking—not a broader assessment of commercial success—the relevant measure for the year-end outcome.

The supplied material does not give exact prices for Google or Anthropic beyond just above 40c, nor does it provide the full settlement rules. It therefore supports a picture of two closely priced leaders, but not a precise gap between them.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Leadership is split: Google and Anthropic carry similar prices; neither is presented as a decisive favorite over the other.
  • OpenAI is priced well behind: Its 8c quote marks a substantial separation from both leading contenders.
  • Resolution criteria matter: This contract concerns the year-end Chatbot Arena result, not an unrestricted judgment about which company has the strongest AI business.
PredictionMarketsPolymarket

Sources & attribution

  1. [1]Deadspin (deadspin.com)https://deadspin.com/prediction-markets/trending/top-ai-trades-on-polymarket-best-ai-models-data-center-moratoriums-and-more/

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