Brazil Presidential Election leads Polymarket's Brazil board at 79.1% for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro remained the favorite in Polymarket’s Brazilian presidential election market at 79.1%, despite a 4.5-percentage-point decline over 24 hours, according to polymarkettrader.com. The contract topped the site’s Brazil rankings by daily trading volume, with $2.28M changing hands.

The figures reflect a snapshot taken on October 16, 2026 at 00:50 UTC. Across 61 live Brazil markets, the tracker reported $2.80M in trading over the preceding 24 hours. Its rankings refresh twice a day and exclude individual games and contracts closing within a few hours.

Winner and margin markets diverge

The presidential runoff margin market ranked second by activity, recording $358.2K in daily volume. Its leading outcome—a Flávio Bolsonaro victory by less than 4%—stood at 41.5%, up 2.0 percentage points. Both the presidential winner and runoff margin contracts list an end date of Oct 26, 2026.

Next came a combined election contract covering Brazil, Israel and the US Senate. The Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems outcome led at 36.5%, down 4.0 percentage points, on $44.1K in daily turnover. That market lists an end date of Nov 4, 2026.

Regional prices show mixed moves

State-level presidential contracts moved in different directions. In Amapá, Flavio Bolsonaro’s leading price rose 5.0 percentage points to 78.5%, with $33.3K traded. In Amazonas, Lula climbed 11.0 percentage points to 69.5% on $10.3K in volume. Lula also led the overseas-vote contract at 71%, up 4.5 percentage points, and Pará at 78.5%, down 4.0 percentage points.

A separate contract on whether Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro would debate before the second round priced Yes at 91.8%, a 4.0-percentage-point increase, with $4.5K traded. Its listed end date is Oct 24, 2026. The supplied data do not identify a news catalyst for these price changes.

What it means for prediction markets

• The national favorite weakened without losing the lead. Bolsonaro’s 79.1% price and 4.5-percentage-point daily decline describe both his position and the direction of the latest move.
• Winning and winning narrowly are distinct outcomes. The increase in the less-than-4% margin contract should not be read as an increase in Bolsonaro’s overall victory probability.
• Activity was concentrated in the presidential winner market. Its $2.28M in daily volume substantially exceeded turnover in the regional and debate contracts.
• These are timestamped price indications. According to polymarkettrader.com, the probabilities derive from Polymarket share prices and are not executable quotes; the tracker is independent of Polymarket.