Terminal
Infiniti Feed

1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026 priced at 1.8% on Polymarket, up 0.4 points, on $3.6M traded

PredictionBubbles' finance board, unchanged on its Oct. 28, 01:59 UTC read, lists the single-cut contract among its traded finance markets, in a finance category…

The Polymarket contract on one Fed rate cut in 2026 was priced at 1.8%, up 0.4 percentage points, with $3.6M traded, in the Oct. 27, 2026, 10:24 PM ET snapshot. PredictionBubbles’ finance board was unchanged at its Oct. 28, 01:59 UTC reading.

A low probability amid active Fed trading

The price places the single-cut outcome at a low market-implied probability despite its increase. According to PredictionBubbles, the board’s probability changes measure movement over the preceding 24 hours, while volume represents total trading where the venue provides that figure.

The board’s most-traded finance contract concerned whether Fed interest rates would remain unchanged after the October 2026 meeting. According to PredictionBubbles, that Polymarket market had recorded $26.5M in trading at the latest refresh. It addresses a different question from the number of cuts across 2026.

Reading the board

PredictionBubbles listed 202 open finance markets: 21 from Kalshi and 181 from Polymarket. Its coverage includes Fed decisions, inflation, GDP, recession outcomes, and index and commodity levels, with the finance listings ordered by traded volume.

According to PredictionBubbles, its data updates every 15 minutes, although trading on the underlying venues is continuous. The site displays venue-published prices rather than accepting wagers or holding customer funds, so its displayed readings are periodic snapshots rather than a continuous record of transactions.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Probability and volume measure different things. The 1.8% reading describes the contract’s implied likelihood; $3.6M records total trading, not the strength of agreement behind that outcome.
  • The contracts are not interchangeable. An unchanged rate after the October 2026 meeting and one cut during 2026 cover different outcomes. The supplied material does not include the single-cut contract’s detailed resolution rules.
  • Timing matters. A board refreshed every 15 minutes may not capture intervening price changes on Polymarket.
  • Cross-venue comparisons need care. PredictionBubbles notes that related Kalshi and Polymarket contracts can differ in wording, resolution rules and deadlines.
PredictionMarketsPolymarket

Sources & attribution

  1. [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/finance/

Date & time:

Full attribution under the DMCA, 17 U.S.C. § 512: an original Infiniti Intelligence report summarizing and linking to the publishers named above. All rights in the underlying reporting remain with them. Rights holders may request correction or removal via the contact address at infiniti.w3ai.io.

Related