More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025 priced at 94.4% on Kalshi, up 0.2 points, on $31.5M traded

Kalshi traders priced the probability that tech layoffs in 2026 will exceed those in 2025 at 94.4%, up 0.2 percentage points, in the Oct 27, 2026 · 10:54 PM ET snapshot. Total traded volume stood at $31.5M.

A high probability, with limited movement

According to predictionbubbles.net, the contract was the most heavily traded open market in its “other” category at the latest refresh. The site defines probability changes as movements over the preceding 24 hours, making the increase a modest shift in an already strongly priced outcome.

The price reflects market expectations—not a confirmed comparison of annual layoffs. The supplied material contains no layoff totals for either 2026 or 2025 and does not provide the contract’s detailed resolution criteria.

Reading the snapshot

According to predictionbubbles.net, its miscellaneous-market board tracked 27 markets, comprising 25 from Kalshi and 2 from Polymarket. The site republishes venue data every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying platforms continues between updates.

The supplied news summary identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. It therefore provides no fresh reported catalyst for the small price increase, and the available material does not establish why traders adjusted their expectations.

What it means for prediction markets

• Strong expectations, not certainty: The 94.4% price indicates a heavily favored “Yes” outcome, but does not establish the final annual layoff comparison.
• Volume and movement measure different things: $31.5M is total traded volume, not money traded during the latest price move or a measure of current liquidity.
• Timing and contract terms matter: PredictionBubbles’ 15-minute refresh cycle can lag trading, and the supplied material does not specify the layoff measure or resolution rules.