Democrats see late gains in Michigan and Minnesota Senate prediction markets
DeFi Rate's midterm hub, observed at 5:59 AM ET on October 31, shows the biggest 7-day Senate moves in Michigan, where El-Sayed rose from 69 to 76 percent against Rogers on Kalshi, and Minnesota, where the Democrat rose from 84 to 90 percent. Senate control averages 70 percent for Democrats across Kalshi and Polymarket, with 25 million dollars traded in election markets in the past 24 hours.
Michigan and Minnesota lead Senate moves
Michigan and Minnesota recorded the largest 7-day shifts among Senate markets tracked by DeFi Rate’s midterm hub, according to its October 31 snapshot at 5:59 AM ET. Both moved toward the Democratic side in the final week.
In Michigan, El-Sayed’s implied probability of defeating Rogers on Kalshi increased from 69 percent to 76 percent—a gain of 7 percentage points.
Minnesota’s Democratic probability moved from 84 percent to 90 percent. Although the headline describes a 7-point increase, the reported endpoints imply a 6-percentage-point gain.
Across Kalshi and Polymarket, the average implied probability of Democratic Senate control stood at 70 percent, according to DeFi Rate. Election markets recorded $25 million in trading over the past 24 hours; that figure covers election markets rather than Senate control alone.
What it means for prediction markets
- Michigan’s move to 76 percent and Minnesota’s rise to 90 percent indicate stronger market expectations for Democratic wins in both races, not certain outcomes.
- The 70 percent Senate-control average combines readings from Kalshi and Polymarket; it should not be treated as a single venue’s price.
- Minnesota’s stated 7-point move is inconsistent with its reported 84-to-90-percent range, a distinction that matters when comparing weekly changes.
Sources & attribution
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