Democrats see late gains in Michigan and Minnesota Senate prediction markets

Michigan and Minnesota lead Senate moves

Michigan and Minnesota recorded the largest 7-day shifts among Senate markets tracked by DeFi Rate’s midterm hub, according to its October 31 snapshot at 5:59 AM ET. Both moved toward the Democratic side in the final week.

In Michigan, El-Sayed’s implied probability of defeating Rogers on Kalshi increased from 69 percent to 76 percent—a gain of 7 percentage points.

Minnesota’s Democratic probability moved from 84 percent to 90 percent. Although the headline describes a 7-point increase, the reported endpoints imply a 6-percentage-point gain.

Across Kalshi and Polymarket, the average implied probability of Democratic Senate control stood at 70 percent, according to DeFi Rate. Election markets recorded $25 million in trading over the past 24 hours; that figure covers election markets rather than Senate control alone.

What it means for prediction markets

• Michigan’s move to 76 percent and Minnesota’s rise to 90 percent indicate stronger market expectations for Democratic wins in both races, not certain outcomes.
• The 70 percent Senate-control average combines readings from Kalshi and Polymarket; it should not be treated as a single venue’s price.
• Minnesota’s stated 7-point move is inconsistent with its reported 84-to-90-percent range, a distinction that matters when comparing weekly changes.