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Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 31, 2026 · 5:00 AM ET

1 story in this edition: Prediction markets assign 71 percent probability to a Democratic midterm sweep

Prediction markets assign 71 percent probability to a Democratic midterm sweep

Paridesk's live prediction market board prices a Democratic sweep of the 2026 midterms at 71 percent, with Democrats at 94 percent to win the House and 71 percent to win the Senate. The same board prices a 25 basis point increase in the December Fed decision market at 71 percent.

Paridesk’s live prediction-market board puts a Democratic sweep in the 2026 midterms at 71 percent, according to Paridesk. The figures were reported on Oct 31, 2026, at 5:00 AM ET.

House odds outpace Senate pricing

The board prices Democrats at 94 percent to win the House and 71 percent to win the Senate. That leaves a 23-percentage-point gap between the two chamber markets.

The Democratic sweep price matches the Senate price at 71 percent. Across the reported figures, the House is the more strongly priced Democratic outcome, while Senate control carries greater uncertainty.

December Fed market also at 71 percent

Separately, the same Paridesk board assigns a 71 percent probability to a 25 basis point increase in the December Fed decision market.

That price is numerically identical to the Democratic sweep and Senate figures. The supplied reporting does not establish a connection between the political and monetary-policy markets.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Chamber differences matter: The 94 percent House price and 71 percent Senate price show materially different expectations for the two contests.
  • Sweep and Senate pricing align: Both stand at 71 percent, but the reported figures alone do not explain how the markets relate.
  • These are reported prices, not settled outcomes: The snapshot provides no price history or trading-volume information to assess momentum or market depth.

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    Parideskparidesk.com
    Publisher
    https://paridesk.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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