Prediction markets assign 71 percent probability to a Democratic midterm sweep
Paridesk's live prediction market board prices a Democratic sweep of the 2026 midterms at 71 percent, with Democrats at 94 percent to win the House and 71 percent to win the Senate. The same board prices a 25 basis point increase in the December Fed decision market at 71 percent.
Paridesk’s live prediction-market board puts a Democratic sweep in the 2026 midterms at 71 percent, according to Paridesk. The figures were reported on Oct 31, 2026, at 5:00 AM ET.
House odds outpace Senate pricing
The board prices Democrats at 94 percent to win the House and 71 percent to win the Senate. That leaves a 23-percentage-point gap between the two chamber markets.
The Democratic sweep price matches the Senate price at 71 percent. Across the reported figures, the House is the more strongly priced Democratic outcome, while Senate control carries greater uncertainty.
December Fed market also at 71 percent
Separately, the same Paridesk board assigns a 71 percent probability to a 25 basis point increase in the December Fed decision market.
That price is numerically identical to the Democratic sweep and Senate figures. The supplied reporting does not establish a connection between the political and monetary-policy markets.
What it means for prediction markets
- Chamber differences matter: The 94 percent House price and 71 percent Senate price show materially different expectations for the two contests.
- Sweep and Senate pricing align: Both stand at 71 percent, but the reported figures alone do not explain how the markets relate.
- These are reported prices, not settled outcomes: The snapshot provides no price history or trading-volume information to assess momentum or market depth.
Sources & attribution
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Related
- Prediction markets price Democrats at 93 percent for the House on Polymarket US and 92 percent on Kalshi, well above the 80 percent forecast model, Action Network reports
- Wall Street pricing for the midterms shows a Democratic House at 91.3 to 93 percent with the VIX near 18.60 ahead of Tuesday, Kalkine reports
- Polymarket US's most-traded market is its U.S. Senate Midterm Winner contract at $68K in 24 hours, with the Democratic Party priced at 47% to win the Senate
- Republicans win Iowa and Kansas and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas rises 5 points to 13.5 percent on Polymarket with 738,000 dollars in 24-hour volume, PolymarketTrader reports
- Michigan Senate market surges 4.2 times its daily average with Abdul El-Sayed priced at 82 percent on Polymarket and 1.0 million dollars traded in 24 hours, DeFi Rate reports
- Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win prices None at 23 percent on Polymarket after a 22 point rise in seven days with 3.6 million dollars traded in 24 hours, DeFi Rate reports