Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 26, 2026 · 3:39 PM ET

December hike probability declines

Polymarket priced a 25 bps increase in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting at 73.5%, down 3.0 percentage points, with $1.2M traded. The snapshot was published on Oct 26, 2026, at 3:39 PM ET.

The move leaves that outcome above 50%, despite the decline in its implied probability. The supplied news summary identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes, leaving no fresh reported catalyst to explain the repricing.

Tracking the broader rates board

According to predictionbubbles.net, its finance board reports probability changes over the last 24 hours and refreshes data every 15 minutes. The underlying venues trade continuously, so the displayed figures need not capture every intervening transaction.

The site tracks 193 open finance markets: 22 on Kalshi and 171 on Polymarket. It ranks trading activity separately from probability movement, distinguishing the contracts attracting the most volume from those experiencing the largest price changes.

According to predictionbubbles.net, the most-traded finance contract at its latest refresh concerned unchanged Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting, with $23.4M traded on Polymarket. That is a separate meeting and outcome from the December 2026 increase contract.

What it means for prediction markets

• A lower probability, not a reversal: The December 2026 contract’s 73.5% reading still assigns greater likelihood to a 25 bps increase than to that specific outcome not occurring.
• The catalyst remains unestablished: The supplied material does not connect the 3.0-point decline to a new economic release or Fed communication.
• Volume and timing require context: The $1.2M figure represents total traded volume, not the amount traded during the probability decline. The aggregator’s 15-minute refresh schedule also matters when comparing snapshots.
• Related contracts are not interchangeable: PredictionBubbles cautions that questions across Polymarket and Kalshi can differ in wording, resolution rules and deadlines.

A Kalshi contract on whether the U.S. will confirm that aliens exist before Jan 20, 2029 was priced at 24.0%, up 2.0 percentage points over the preceding 24 hours, with $833K traded as of Oct 26, 2026, at 3:39 PM ET.

According to PredictionBubbles, the January 2029 contract appears on its technology board in a tech/science category. The price represents a market-implied probability—not evidence that such confirmation has occurred or is forthcoming.

A separate deadline from the volume leader

The January 2029 contract is distinct from the board’s most heavily traded technology market. According to PredictionBubbles, that position belonged at its latest refresh to the Kalshi question asking whether the U.S. will confirm that aliens exist before 2027, with $29.6M traded.

Those are different deadlines, and the supplied material provides no price for the before-2027 contract. It therefore does not support a comparison of the probabilities assigned to the two time horizons.

What the board captures

PredictionBubbles reports tracking 51 open technology markets: 13 from Kalshi and 38 from Polymarket. Its data refreshes every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying venues continues between updates. The site ranks its full technology-market list by traded volume and separately identifies movers by absolute probability changes over the last 24 hours.

The supplied reporting identifies no announcement or other catalyst for the January 2029 contract’s 2.0-point increase. It also does not include the contract’s detailed resolution criteria. PredictionBubbles describes itself as an information service displaying venue prices, rather than a platform that accepts wagers or holds funds.

What it means for prediction markets

• The move is a pricing signal, not confirmation. The 24.0% reading captures the market’s implied probability for the specified outcome and deadline.
• Deadline distinctions matter. The $833K January 2029 contract should not be confused with the before-2027 contract carrying $29.6M in traded volume.
• Resolution details remain a gap. Without the contract’s full rules, the supplied material does not establish precisely what would qualify as U.S. confirmation.
• The figures are a snapshot. A 15-minute publication cycle means displayed probabilities can differ from subsequent trading prices.