Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting priced at 73.5% on Polymarket, down 3.0 points, on $1.2M traded

December hike probability declines

Polymarket priced a 25 bps increase in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting at 73.5%, down 3.0 percentage points, with $1.2M traded. The snapshot was published on Oct 26, 2026, at 3:39 PM ET.

The move leaves that outcome above 50%, despite the decline in its implied probability. The supplied news summary identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes, leaving no fresh reported catalyst to explain the repricing.

Tracking the broader rates board

According to predictionbubbles.net, its finance board reports probability changes over the last 24 hours and refreshes data every 15 minutes. The underlying venues trade continuously, so the displayed figures need not capture every intervening transaction.

The site tracks 193 open finance markets: 22 on Kalshi and 171 on Polymarket. It ranks trading activity separately from probability movement, distinguishing the contracts attracting the most volume from those experiencing the largest price changes.

According to predictionbubbles.net, the most-traded finance contract at its latest refresh concerned unchanged Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting, with $23.4M traded on Polymarket. That is a separate meeting and outcome from the December 2026 increase contract.

What it means for prediction markets

• A lower probability, not a reversal: The December 2026 contract’s 73.5% reading still assigns greater likelihood to a 25 bps increase than to that specific outcome not occurring.
• The catalyst remains unestablished: The supplied material does not connect the 3.0-point decline to a new economic release or Fed communication.
• Volume and timing require context: The $1.2M figure represents total traded volume, not the amount traded during the probability decline. The aggregator’s 15-minute refresh schedule also matters when comparing snapshots.
• Related contracts are not interchangeable: PredictionBubbles cautions that questions across Polymarket and Kalshi can differ in wording, resolution rules and deadlines.