Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 26, 2026 · 2:54 PM ET

Disarmament contract rises, but remains a low-probability outcome

Polymarket’s contract on whether Hamas will agree to disarm by December 31 was priced at 13.0%, up 4.5 percentage points, with $1.7M traded, in the supplied market update published Oct 26, 2026, at 2:54 PM ET. Despite the increase, the price still places the outcome well below even odds.

The accompanying news scan identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. It therefore supplies no fresh reporting that directly explains the move, and the repricing should not be read as confirmation of progress toward an agreement.

What the data establishes

According to predictionbubbles.net, its movers board compares market-implied probabilities over 24 hours, using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and refreshing every 15 minutes. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot of 26 Oct 2026, 18:18 UTC.

That methodology measures changes in percentage points rather than relative percentages. However, the supplied page text does not include a Hamas-specific entry, so the contract’s 13.0% price, 4.5-point increase and $1.7M trading figure come from the supplied headline rather than an independently visible listing in the excerpt.

The volume figure also has limits: the headline does not specify its measurement period or provide order-book depth. It cannot establish how much money traded during the price increase or how readily additional orders could move the contract.

What it means for prediction markets

• A higher price is not a confirmed development. The contract repriced upward, but the supplied material identifies no fresh catalyst.
• The outcome remains priced as unlikely. A 13.0% implied probability is still well below even odds despite the 4.5-point gain.
• Volume does not establish liquidity. The $1.7M traded figure lacks a stated period and does not reveal market depth.
• The wording matters. The headline concerns Hamas agreeing to disarm by December 31; the supplied material does not include the contract’s detailed resolution criteria.

The Polymarket contract for Likud to win 30–34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election was priced at 7.9%, up 4.4 probability points over 24 hours, with $570K traded, in the Oct 26, 2026 update published at 2:54 PM ET.

According to PredictionBubbles, the seat-range contract appeared among the upward moves in its political/election category. The increase represents a repricing of that specific seat band, rather than a market assessment of whether Likud will win the election overall.

What the move captures

PredictionBubbles’ supplied snapshot records venue data collected on 26 Oct 2026 at 18:18 UTC. Its movers board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and updates every 15 minutes, ranking changes over a 24-hour window.

The board measures movement in probability points, not relative percentage gains. It ranks eligible contracts by the size of their price change; trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not determine their position.

Limits of the available evidence

The supplied material identifies no poll, political announcement or other event behind the Likud contract’s rise. It also does not provide prices for neighboring seat bands, so the move alone cannot establish whether traders shifted toward a higher or lower overall seat forecast.

The $570K traded figure adds activity context, but the supplied headline does not specify its measurement period. It therefore should not be treated as the amount traded during the 24-hour repricing window or as a measure of available liquidity.

What it means for prediction markets

• A larger price, still a low-probability band: At 7.9%, the 30–34-seat outcome remains priced as unlikely despite the 4.4-point increase.
• The contract’s scope matters: This is a seat-range market, not a direct wager on an overall Likud election victory.
• The catalyst remains unverified: The available evidence documents the price movement, not its cause.
• Volume is not depth: The $570K figure does not establish how much trading drove the move or how easily further orders could change the price.