Hamas agree to disarm by December 31 priced at 13.0% on Polymarket, up 4.5 points, on $1.7M traded

Disarmament contract rises, but remains a low-probability outcome

Polymarket’s contract on whether Hamas will agree to disarm by December 31 was priced at 13.0%, up 4.5 percentage points, with $1.7M traded, in the supplied market update published Oct 26, 2026, at 2:54 PM ET. Despite the increase, the price still places the outcome well below even odds.

The accompanying news scan identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. It therefore supplies no fresh reporting that directly explains the move, and the repricing should not be read as confirmation of progress toward an agreement.

What the data establishes

According to predictionbubbles.net, its movers board compares market-implied probabilities over 24 hours, using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and refreshing every 15 minutes. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot of 26 Oct 2026, 18:18 UTC.

That methodology measures changes in percentage points rather than relative percentages. However, the supplied page text does not include a Hamas-specific entry, so the contract’s 13.0% price, 4.5-point increase and $1.7M trading figure come from the supplied headline rather than an independently visible listing in the excerpt.

The volume figure also has limits: the headline does not specify its measurement period or provide order-book depth. It cannot establish how much money traded during the price increase or how readily additional orders could move the contract.

What it means for prediction markets

• A higher price is not a confirmed development. The contract repriced upward, but the supplied material identifies no fresh catalyst.
• The outcome remains priced as unlikely. A 13.0% implied probability is still well below even odds despite the 4.5-point gain.
• Volume does not establish liquidity. The $1.7M traded figure lacks a stated period and does not reveal market depth.
• The wording matters. The headline concerns Hamas agreeing to disarm by December 31; the supplied material does not include the contract’s detailed resolution criteria.