Hourly Briefing ·
2 stories in this edition: US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31 priced at 98.1% on Polymarket, up 4.1 points, on $700K traded · Seattle win the Pro Football NFC Championship priced at 13.0% on Kalshi, up 3.0 points, on $996K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Yemen ceasefire-continuation contract among its upward political moves, in a political/election category distinct from the…
No significant new platform headline in the last 30 minutes; news search recirculated only items already used today or on Oct. 25, taken by website-only batches, or on…
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Polymarket’s contract on whether the US–Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31 was priced at 98.1%, up 4.1 probability points, with $700K traded, in the supplied October 26, 2026 update.
According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among upward moves in its political/election category. The price reflects traders assigning a very high probability to continuation through the specified deadline; it does not establish that the outcome is certain.
PredictionBubbles ranks changes over a 24-hour window and updates its board every 15 minutes, using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot of 26 Oct 2026, 06:08 UTC, ahead of the story’s publication at 2:24 AM ET.
The board’s rankings cover 2,047 markets lasting longer than 14 days. According to PredictionBubbles, only open contracts with a valid day-earlier comparison qualify, and rankings depend on the size of the probability-point move—not trading volume or liquidity.
The supplied material does not identify a diplomatic or military development behind the ceasefire contract’s rise. It also does not include the contract’s detailed settlement criteria or specify the period covered by its reported $700K in trading, limiting what can be concluded about the catalyst and market depth.
Seattle’s price to win the Pro Football NFC Championship reached 13.0% on Kalshi, up 3.0 probability points, with $996K traded, according to the supplied market headline published Oct. 26, 2026, at 2:24 AM ET.
The move represents a higher market-implied chance of a Seattle championship, but the supplied material identifies no fresh catalyst. The accompanying news-search summary reported no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes; it described recirculated coverage rather than a new development explaining the repricing.
According to predictionbubbles.net, its movers board measures changes over 24 hours and updates every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot of 26 Oct 2026, 06:08 UTC.
The board ranks eligible markets by the absolute size of their probability-point changes, not by relative percentage gains or trading volume. Its stated universe covers 2,047 markets lasting longer than 14 days, excluding same-week fixtures; only open contracts with a valid day-old comparison qualify for ranking.
That methodology distinguishes price movement from trading activity. The $996K figure gives context to Seattle’s repricing, but the supplied headline does not specify its measurement period, and the source excerpt does not provide Seattle-specific order-book depth or an explanation for the move.