US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31 priced at 98.1% on Polymarket, up 4.1 points, on $700K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Yemen ceasefire-continuation contract among its upward political moves, in a political/election category distinct from the…
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Polymarket’s contract on whether the US–Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31 was priced at 98.1%, up 4.1 probability points, with $700K traded, in the supplied October 26, 2026 update.
According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among upward moves in its political/election category. The price reflects traders assigning a very high probability to continuation through the specified deadline; it does not establish that the outcome is certain.
What the board measures
PredictionBubbles ranks changes over a 24-hour window and updates its board every 15 minutes, using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot of 26 Oct 2026, 06:08 UTC, ahead of the story’s publication at 2:24 AM ET.
The board’s rankings cover 2,047 markets lasting longer than 14 days. According to PredictionBubbles, only open contracts with a valid day-earlier comparison qualify, and rankings depend on the size of the probability-point move—not trading volume or liquidity.
The supplied material does not identify a diplomatic or military development behind the ceasefire contract’s rise. It also does not include the contract’s detailed settlement criteria or specify the period covered by its reported $700K in trading, limiting what can be concluded about the catalyst and market depth.
What it means for prediction markets
A strong expectation, not confirmation: The 98.1% price signals a heavily favored outcome, rather than independently verifying that the ceasefire will continue.
The change is measured in points: The 4.1-point increase describes a shift in implied probability over 24 hours, not a relative percentage gain.
Volume and resolution details remain important: The reported $700K traded adds context, but does not by itself establish liquidity. The contract’s precise settlement rules are not included in the supplied material.