Hourly Briefing ·
2 stories in this edition: Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026 priced at 18.0% on Polymarket, up 9.5 points, on $153K traded · Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League priced at 0.1% on Polymarket, on $35.4M traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Venezuela election-scheduling contract among its upward political moves, in a political/election category distinct from the…
No significant new platform headline in the last 30 minutes; news search recirculated only items already used today, taken by website-only batches, or on the banned list…
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Polymarket’s contract on whether a Venezuela election will be scheduled by December 31, 2026 was priced at 18.0%, up 9.5 percentage points, with $153K traded, in the supplied update published Oct 25, 2026 at 12:39 PM ET.
According to PredictionBubbles, the election-scheduling contract appeared among upward moves in its political/election category. Despite the increase, the price remained below 50%: traders were still assigning a lower probability to the specified outcome occurring than not occurring.
PredictionBubbles measures changes over 24 hours and updates its board every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied source identifies its venue-data snapshot as 25 Oct 2026, 16:42 UTC.
According to PredictionBubbles, the ranking covers 1,984 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days. It excludes markets without a valid day-old comparison and orders eligible contracts by the size of their probability-point changes, rather than by trading volume or liquidity.
The supplied material does not identify a news development behind the Venezuela contract’s rise or provide its detailed settlement rules. The question concerns an election being scheduled by December 31, 2026—not necessarily an election being held by that date. The $153K trading figure supplies activity context, but does not establish the market’s order-book depth.
Shakhtar Donetsk’s chance of winning the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League was priced at 0.1% on Polymarket in the supplied Oct 25, 2026, 12:39 PM ET snapshot. The contract had recorded $35.4M in traded volume.
According to predictionbubbles.net, the Shakhtar title contract was the most heavily traded sports market in its coverage at the latest refresh. That ranking measures cumulative trading activity, not the size of a recent probability change.
The supplied news summary identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. It therefore provides no fresh reported catalyst for the Shakhtar pricing, and the source excerpt gives no contract-specific 24-hour probability change.
According to predictionbubbles.net, its sports coverage includes 620 open markets: 223 from Kalshi and 397 from Polymarket. Its embedded display features the 300 largest by volume, while the broader board covers all 620.
The site updates its data every 15 minutes, although trading on the underlying venues continues between updates. It describes contract prices as probabilities established by exchange participants and operates as an information service rather than a venue that accepts wagers or holds funds.