Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026 priced at 18.0% on Polymarket, up 9.5 points, on $153K traded

Venezuela scheduling contract moves higher

Polymarket’s contract on whether a Venezuela election will be scheduled by December 31, 2026 was priced at 18.0%, up 9.5 percentage points, with $153K traded, in the supplied update published Oct 25, 2026 at 12:39 PM ET.

According to PredictionBubbles, the election-scheduling contract appeared among upward moves in its political/election category. Despite the increase, the price remained below 50%: traders were still assigning a lower probability to the specified outcome occurring than not occurring.

What the board establishes

PredictionBubbles measures changes over 24 hours and updates its board every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied source identifies its venue-data snapshot as 25 Oct 2026, 16:42 UTC.

According to PredictionBubbles, the ranking covers 1,984 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days. It excludes markets without a valid day-old comparison and orders eligible contracts by the size of their probability-point changes, rather than by trading volume or liquidity.

The supplied material does not identify a news development behind the Venezuela contract’s rise or provide its detailed settlement rules. The question concerns an election being scheduled by December 31, 2026—not necessarily an election being held by that date. The $153K trading figure supplies activity context, but does not establish the market’s order-book depth.

What it means for prediction markets

• The move is a repricing, not confirmation. A gain of 9.5 percentage points shows a higher market-implied probability, not evidence that an election date has been announced.
• The deadline and wording matter. Assessing this contract requires distinguishing election scheduling from voting itself; detailed resolution criteria are absent from the supplied material.
• Volume and liquidity are different measures. The reported $153K traded does not, on its own, show how readily additional orders could move the price.