Hourly Briefing ·
2 stories in this edition: Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31 priced at 13.5% on Polymarket, down 3 points, on $767K traded · Another Fed rate hike in 2026 priced at 77.5% on Polymarket, up 5 points, on $1.0M traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Khamenei public-appearance contract among its downward political moves, in a political/election category distinct from the…
No significant new platform headline in the last 30 minutes; news search recirculated only the CNN midterm-volume analysis taken by today's 1715 website-only batch, the…
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Polymarket’s contract on whether Mojtaba Khamenei will be seen in public by December 31 was priced at 13.5%, down 3 probability points, with $767K traded in the supplied Oct 23, 2026 · 7:24 PM ET update.
According to PredictionBubbles, its movers board placed the contract among declining markets in its political/election category. The supplied material does not identify a news event behind the decline or provide the contract’s detailed settlement criteria.
PredictionBubbles measures moves over 24 hours and refreshes its board every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied page records its venue-data snapshot as 23 Oct 2026, 23:14 UTC.
The board ranks changes by their size in probability points, rather than relative percentage changes. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect that ranking. The Khamenei contract’s 3-point decline therefore describes a change in its market-implied probability, not a 3% relative fall.
According to PredictionBubbles, the ranking covers 1,979 markets lasting longer than 14 days and requires an open market with a valid 24-hour comparison. Its displayed table includes the top 150 of 472 markets that moved at least one probability point.
Polymarket’s implied probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 reached 77.5%, rising 5 probability points, with $1.0M traded, according to the supplied market update published Oct 23, 2026, at 7:24 PM ET.
The repricing puts the market firmly on the side of another increase before the year ends. But the supplied material identifies no fresh monetary-policy development explaining the move.
According to predictionbubbles.net, its movers board measures changes over 24 hours using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi, with updates every 15 minutes. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot taken on 23 Oct 2026, at 23:14 UTC.
The board ranks markets by the size of their probability-point changes, rather than relative percentage gains or trading volume. Its comparison covers 1,979 markets lasting longer than 14 days and excludes markets without a valid 24-hour price baseline.
The supplied page explains the tracking methodology but does not display the individual Fed contract entry. The 77.5% probability, 5-point increase and $1.0M traded therefore come from the accompanying headline; the extract does not independently establish the trading-volume period or provide the contract’s settlement terms.
The accompanying news summary reports no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. It mentions recirculated CNN analysis of midterm trading volume, but provides no evidence connecting that coverage to the Fed contract’s movement.