Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31 priced at 13.5% on Polymarket, down 3 points, on $767K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Khamenei public-appearance contract among its downward political moves, in a political/election category distinct from the…
Full attribution under the DMCA, 17 U.S.C. § 512: an original Infiniti Intelligence report summarizing and linking to the publishers named above. All rights in the underlying reporting remain with them. Rights holders may request correction or removal via the contact address at infiniti.w3ai.io.
Polymarket’s contract on whether Mojtaba Khamenei will be seen in public by December 31 was priced at 13.5%, down 3 probability points, with $767K traded in the supplied Oct 23, 2026 · 7:24 PM ET update.
According to PredictionBubbles, its movers board placed the contract among declining markets in its political/election category. The supplied material does not identify a news event behind the decline or provide the contract’s detailed settlement criteria.
What the snapshot captures
PredictionBubbles measures moves over 24 hours and refreshes its board every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied page records its venue-data snapshot as 23 Oct 2026, 23:14 UTC.
The board ranks changes by their size in probability points, rather than relative percentage changes. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect that ranking. The Khamenei contract’s 3-point decline therefore describes a change in its market-implied probability, not a 3% relative fall.
According to PredictionBubbles, the ranking covers 1,979 markets lasting longer than 14 days and requires an open market with a valid 24-hour comparison. Its displayed table includes the top 150 of 472 markets that moved at least one probability point.
What it means for prediction markets
The signal is narrower than a political forecast: The 13.5% price concerns a public appearance by December 31, not a broader assessment of Khamenei’s circumstances.
The cause remains unestablished: The supplied reporting documents a repricing but offers no evidence explaining why traders lowered the probability.
Volume does not establish depth: The $767K traded figure provides activity context, but the supplied material does not specify its measurement period or the contract’s available liquidity.
Settlement details matter: Without the contract’s full rules, the material does not establish precisely what evidence would qualify as being seen in public.