Hourly Briefing ·
2 stories in this edition: Todd Achilles win the 2026 Idaho Senate race priced at 3.1% on Polymarket, down 7.4 points, on $119K traded · Ben Kohles win the Butterfield Bermuda Championship priced at 10.0% on Kalshi, up 7.5 points, on $693K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Achilles Idaho Senate contract among its downward political moves, resolving in 11 days, in a political/election category…
No significant new platform headline in the last 30 minutes; news search recirculated only the Pentagon insider-bets memo already noted in the Oct. 22 2224 edition, the…
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Todd Achilles’ contract to win the 2026 Idaho Senate race was priced at 3.1% on Polymarket, down 7.4 probability points over 24 hours, according to PredictionBubbles’ movers board. The listing showed $119K traded and placed the contract among declining political markets.
The contract was listed in a political/election category with resolution in 11 days. That countdown describes the market’s remaining resolution horizon, rather than explaining why traders lowered its price.
The supplied material identifies no campaign development, poll or other specific catalyst for the decline. It documents a change in market pricing, not an independently established shift in Achilles’ electoral prospects.
According to PredictionBubbles, the board uses prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and refreshes every 15 minutes. The supplied snapshot recorded venue data read on 23 Oct 2026, 12:18 UTC; the story’s publication timestamp is Oct 23, 2026 · 8:24 AM ET.
The board orders markets by the magnitude of their 24-hour probability-point changes, rather than relative percentage changes. Volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect that ranking, and markets without a valid day-earlier comparison are excluded.
The $119K traded figure therefore adds context to Achilles’ move without establishing market depth or its cause. The provided listing does not show order-book liquidity or a breakdown of the trades behind the decline.
Ben Kohles’ market-implied probability of winning the Butterfield Bermuda Championship reached 10.0% on Kalshi, up 7.5 percentage points, with $693K traded, according to the supplied market update published Oct 23, 2026, at 8:24 AM ET.
PredictionBubbles identified the Kohles contract as the biggest sports mover on its market-movement page. Its snapshot was drawn from venue prices on 23 Oct 2026 at 12:18 UTC, with changes measured over 24 hours.
According to predictionbubbles.net, the tracker compares markets on Polymarket and Kalshi using the absolute size of their probability-point changes. Trading volume provides context but does not affect the ranking. The Kohles increase therefore represents a 7.5-percentage-point repricing, not a 7.5% relative gain.
The board covers 2,017 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days and refreshes every 15 minutes. It excludes same-week fixtures and requires open markets to have a valid 24-hour comparison, meaning its mover labels apply to a filtered universe rather than every contract available on either venue.
The supplied material does not identify tournament developments or player-specific news explaining the Kohles move. The accompanying news summary reported no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes; its search instead resurfaced a Pentagon insider-bets memo already noted in the Oct. 22 2224 edition.
That leaves the price change and reported turnover as the central observations. Neither establishes why traders repriced Kohles, and the $693K figure alone does not establish the contract’s liquidity or the depth available at its displayed price.