Todd Achilles win the 2026 Idaho Senate race priced at 3.1% on Polymarket, down 7.4 points, on $119K traded

Todd Achilles’ contract to win the 2026 Idaho Senate race was priced at 3.1% on Polymarket, down 7.4 probability points over 24 hours, according to PredictionBubbles’ movers board. The listing showed $119K traded and placed the contract among declining political markets.

A sharp repricing near resolution

The contract was listed in a political/election category with resolution in 11 days. That countdown describes the market’s remaining resolution horizon, rather than explaining why traders lowered its price.

The supplied material identifies no campaign development, poll or other specific catalyst for the decline. It documents a change in market pricing, not an independently established shift in Achilles’ electoral prospects.

How the board measures movement

According to PredictionBubbles, the board uses prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and refreshes every 15 minutes. The supplied snapshot recorded venue data read on 23 Oct 2026, 12:18 UTC; the story’s publication timestamp is Oct 23, 2026 · 8:24 AM ET.

The board orders markets by the magnitude of their 24-hour probability-point changes, rather than relative percentage changes. Volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect that ranking, and markets without a valid day-earlier comparison are excluded.

The $119K traded figure therefore adds context to Achilles’ move without establishing market depth or its cause. The provided listing does not show order-book liquidity or a breakdown of the trades behind the decline.

What it means for prediction markets

• Read the units correctly: The decline is 7.4 probability points, not a 7.4% relative fall. The resulting market-implied probability is 3.1%.
• Separate price from evidence: The listing establishes that the contract repriced; it does not identify new electoral information driving that change.
• Keep timing and liquidity distinct: Resolution in 11 days makes the remaining horizon relevant, while $119K traded alone does not establish how much trading could move the price.