Hourly Briefing ·
2 stories in this edition: There be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting priced at 23.0% on Polymarket, up 4.5 points, on $993K traded · Between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026 priced at 28.0% on Polymarket, up 9.5 points, on $294K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the December no-change contract among its upward finance moves, in a finance category distinct from the lead — it has zero hits in…
No significant new platform headline in the last 30 minutes; news search recirculated only items already carried, banned or taken by website-only items today, including…
Full attribution under the DMCA, 17 U.S.C. § 512: original Infiniti Intelligence reports summarizing and linking to the publishers named above. All rights in the underlying reporting remain with them.
Polymarket’s contract on whether Federal Reserve interest rates will remain unchanged after the December 2026 meeting was priced at 23.0%, up 4.5 percentage points, with $993K traded, in the update published Oct 22, 2026, at 1:24 PM ET.
According to PredictionBubbles, the December no-change contract appeared among the upward movers in its finance category. The increase reflects a higher market-implied probability of unchanged rates, although the outcome remained priced below 50%.
PredictionBubbles ranks changes over a 24-hour window and refreshes its board every 15 minutes, using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied board snapshot records venue data read on 22 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC.
According to PredictionBubbles, its rankings cover 1,986 markets lasting longer than 14 days. Only open contracts with a valid day-earlier price comparison qualify, and the ranking depends on the size of the probability-point change—not trading volume or liquidity.
The supplied material does not identify a catalyst for the December contract’s rise. It also does not specify the period covered by the headline’s $993K traded figure or provide contract-specific liquidity data, limiting what can be concluded about the trading behind the move.
The Polymarket contract on whether the world will record between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher in 2026 was priced at 28.0%, up 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours, with $294K traded in the supplied market update published Oct 22, 2026, at 1:24 PM ET.
According to predictionbubbles.net, the earthquake contract appeared among the notable movers on its market-monitoring page. The supplied news summary identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes, leaving no fresh reported catalyst to explain the repricing.
Predictionbubbles.net tracks prices from Polymarket and Kalshi, updating its comparisons every 15 minutes. The supplied snapshot was read from the venues on 22 Oct 2026 at 17:15 UTC, and its rankings measure changes over 24 hours in probability points rather than relative percentages.
The tracker’s eligible universe covered 1,986 markets lasting longer than 14 days. Its table displayed the top 150 of 489 markets moving by at least one probability point. Only open contracts with a valid day-old price comparison enter the rankings; trading volume does not determine their position.
The supplied material contains no current earthquake count, new seismic report or contract-resolution criteria. It therefore establishes a change in how traders price this particular annual range, but does not explain whether that change followed new earthquake data or trading activity alone.
The $294K traded provides context, but the supplied headline does not specify its measurement period. It should not automatically be treated as 24-hour volume, nor does it establish how much liquidity was available when prices moved.