There be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting priced at 23.0% on Polymarket, up 4.5 points, on $993K traded

December hold contract moves higher

Polymarket’s contract on whether Federal Reserve interest rates will remain unchanged after the December 2026 meeting was priced at 23.0%, up 4.5 percentage points, with $993K traded, in the update published Oct 22, 2026, at 1:24 PM ET.

According to PredictionBubbles, the December no-change contract appeared among the upward movers in its finance category. The increase reflects a higher market-implied probability of unchanged rates, although the outcome remained priced below 50%.

How the move is measured

PredictionBubbles ranks changes over a 24-hour window and refreshes its board every 15 minutes, using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied board snapshot records venue data read on 22 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC.

According to PredictionBubbles, its rankings cover 1,986 markets lasting longer than 14 days. Only open contracts with a valid day-earlier price comparison qualify, and the ranking depends on the size of the probability-point change—not trading volume or liquidity.

The supplied material does not identify a catalyst for the December contract’s rise. It also does not specify the period covered by the headline’s $993K traded figure or provide contract-specific liquidity data, limiting what can be concluded about the trading behind the move.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction is not dominance: The 4.5-point increase marks a repricing toward unchanged December rates, but the contract’s 23.0% price still places that outcome below an even chance.
• Volume and movement answer different questions: The $993K figure supplies trading context; it does not establish market depth or explain why the probability changed.
• The snapshot has limits: Without a stated catalyst or prices for alternative December outcomes, this contract alone cannot establish how traders redistributed expectations across possible Fed decisions.