Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 15, 2026 · 6:39 PM ET

Georgia and Notre Dame lead Kalshi’s College Football Playoff qualification market entering Week 7, at 93% and 92%, respectively, according to Kalshi News. The figures reflect market expectations for reaching the playoff, rather than winning the championship.

Miami FL follows at 88%, with Ohio State at 84% and Indiana at 78%. The Oct 15, 2026 update puts those teams ahead of Texas, whose qualification probability stands at 68% after its loss to Oklahoma.

Texas and LSU face tougher paths

Texas remains more likely than not to qualify in the market’s assessment, but its position has weakened. According to Kalshi News, the Longhorns’ probability fell from a peak of 86% to 68% following the Red River Rivalry defeat.

LSU also lost ground after its second defeat against a ranked opponent. Four ranked opponents remain on the Tigers’ schedule, beginning with a home matchup against #16 Mississippi State. Oregon’s probability declined as well, though the supplied update gives no exact figure for either Oregon or LSU.

Big 12 contenders remain closely grouped

Utah is priced at 47%, narrowly ahead of Texas Tech at 46%, while BYU stands at 40%, according to Kalshi News. All three are unbeaten in Big 12 conference play entering Week 7.

Those prices leave each of the three below 50% despite their conference records, contrasting with the much higher qualification expectations attached to Georgia and Notre Dame.

What it means for prediction markets

• Qualification is the relevant outcome: The percentages concern playoff entry, not the eventual national champion.
• Texas illustrates the repricing risk: Its move from a peak of 86% to 68% shows how a defeat can weaken expectations without making qualification the less likely outcome.
• LSU’s remaining schedule is a key watchpoint: Four ranked opponents remain, with #16 Mississippi State next.
• The Big 12 picture is uncertain: Utah, Texas Tech and BYU remain contenders, but none of their quoted probabilities exceeds 50%.

Kalshi contributed $5,000 to Idaho Attorney General Raúl Labrador’s campaign on Tuesday, despite his opposition to the federal position that would shield sports prediction markets from state gambling laws. According to RG.org, citing Idaho Education News, the platform also offers contracts on Labrador’s re-election race. His spokesperson, Damon Sidur, told EdNews the donation would not alter Labrador’s view that gambling policy belongs with states rather than the federal government.

Contributions alongside a jurisdiction fight

The New York-based company donated $15,500 to Idaho Republicans over the past month, EdNews reported. Beyond Labrador’s campaign, recipients included the Idaho House Republican Caucus, which received $5,000, and House Speaker Mike Moyle, R-Star, who received $1,000. Contributions of $500 each went to Sens. Lori Den Hartog and Ben Adams; Reps. Chris Bruce, Shawn Dygert, Kyle Harris, Rob Beiswenger and Dustin Manwaring; and candidates Scott Herndon and Josh Keyser.

In March, Labrador joined a 39-state coalition submitting an amicus brief to the Ninth Circuit in support of Nevada’s enforcement of gambling laws against prediction-market platforms in consolidated cases. According to RG.org, the coalition disputed the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s position that the contracts qualify as swaps exclusively under federal oversight. Labrador argued that this interpretation would prevent states such as Idaho from enforcing sports-betting bans.

Labrador’s office said Kalshi and Crypto.com started offering sports betting in January 2025 through contracts described as “events contracts” on federally regulated futures exchanges. The office said the CFTC withheld endorsement for roughly a year before changing direction under new leadership in late 2025. Idaho also joined an Ohio-led July 27 comment arguing that the CFTC’s proposed event-contract and prediction-market rule exceeds its statutory authority; the agency has since proposed explicitly classifying event contracts as swaps, RG.org reported.

Courts diverge as Idaho election trading grows

The appeals courts remain divided. According to RG.org, the Third Circuit backed Kalshi in April, while the Ninth Circuit reached the opposite conclusion Aug. 28, followed by the Sixth Circuit Sept. 25. Thirty-nine states and the District of Columbia have asked the U.S. Supreme Court to take New Jersey’s appeal, highlighting the contrast between licensed US sportsbooks subject to safeguards such as self-exclusion lists and prediction markets that contend those requirements do not apply to them.

As of Tuesday, Kalshi listed 24 Idaho election-related events with aggregate trading volume above $500,000, EdNews reported. The U.S. Senate contest between Sen. Jim Risch and Todd Achilles led with $385,221 traded and a 94.3% implied probability of a Risch victory. Labrador’s race ranked second at $42,896, with a 96% probability of beating Democratic challenger Lori Hickman in next month’s election. Other contracts cover ballot measures, Idahoans’ selection of a state gun and whether Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terri Pickens secures at least 36% of the vote.

Jonathan Krutz, a Boise State University professor emeritus and board chair of the nonprofit Stop Predatory Gambling, told EdNews that prediction markets expose participants to potentially manipulated events and counterparties with inside information. He called for the markets to be halted until regulations and enforcement personnel are established.

The political spending extends beyond Idaho. According to an OpenSecrets analysis cited by RG.org, Kalshi, Polymarket and the Coalition for Prediction Markets have together spent at least $3 million on lobbying and campaign contributions in 2026. Kalshi’s recipients include the campaigns of attorneys general Charity Clark of Vermont, Dan Rayfield of Oregon and James Uthmeier of Florida. Kalshi spokesperson Dani Lever told OpenSecrets the company supports candidates from both parties.

What it means for prediction markets

• The donation does not establish a policy shift. Labrador’s office says his support for state control of gambling remains unchanged.
• Jurisdiction remains unresolved. Conflicting appeals-court decisions, the request for Supreme Court review and the CFTC’s proposed swaps definition are central developments for sports event contracts.
• Election-market figures are a dated snapshot. The reported volumes and probabilities reflect Tuesday’s trading, not a guaranteed electoral outcome or a current price.
• Political activity and market oversight overlap. Kalshi is funding officials’ campaigns while offering election contracts and contesting the scope of state gambling regulation.