Hourly Briefing · Oct 14, 2026 · 10:54 PM ET

Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 14, 2026 · 10:54 PM ET

2 stories in this edition: UK FCA weighs lifting its prediction markets ban under a supervised access regime · Bipartisan PREDICT Act would bar Congress from political prediction contracts

UK FCA weighs lifting its prediction markets ban under a supervised access regime

Prediction Authority reports the Financial Conduct Authority is weighing supervised access as combined Kalshi and Polymarket monthly volume rose from under $5B in…

FCA considers supervised access

The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority is weighing whether to lift its prediction markets ban through a supervised access regime, according to Prediction Authority. The report was published on Oct 14, 2026, at 10:54 PM ET.

The proposal is described as under consideration, not as an approved change. The available summary does not establish whether the FCA will proceed or when a decision might come.

Volume context remains incomplete

Prediction Authority’s summary also points to rising combined monthly volume at Kalshi and Polymarket, citing a starting level of under $5B. However, the summary cuts off before identifying the starting period, the later volume figure or the comparison date.

The full source text was unavailable. As a result, the supplied material does not establish how supervised access would work, which platforms or contracts it might cover, or what conditions participants would face.

What it means for prediction markets

A review is not an opening: The reported consideration of supervised access does not establish that the UK ban has been lifted.
Scope and timing remain unresolved: The available material provides no implementation date or eligibility requirements for platforms, contracts or users.
The volume comparison is incomplete: The under $5B starting figure alone cannot establish the size or pace of growth in combined Kalshi and Polymarket activity.

Predictionauthority (predictionauthority.com)https://predictionauthority.com/news/fca-uk-prediction-markets-ban-review-2026-kalshi-polymarket/

Bipartisan PREDICT Act would bar Congress from political prediction contracts

Quiet quarter-hour — no major platform headline in the last 15 minutes, so this fresh legislative item leads, in a legal/regulatory category different from the previous…

PREDICT Act targets congressional participation

A bipartisan proposal called the PREDICT Act would prohibit members of Congress from participating in political prediction contracts, according to gamblerss.com.

The item, published Oct 14, 2026 · 10:54 PM ET, concerns a proposed restriction on congressional participation—not an enacted ban.

Details remain unavailable

The source page text was unavailable. The supplied material does not identify the bill’s sponsors, legislative timetable, enforcement provisions or precise definition of covered contracts.

That leaves a limited basis for assessing its reach. The reported proposal targets Congress, but the available information does not establish how platforms would be expected to implement the restriction.

What it means for prediction markets

Legislative status matters: The PREDICT Act is described as a proposal; the supplied material does not establish that it has advanced or become law.
Contract scope remains unresolved: Political prediction contracts are the stated target, but the unavailable bill details prevent a more precise assessment.
Participant restrictions are distinct from platform restrictions: The reported measure concerns congressional participation, not a general prohibition on political prediction markets.

Gamblerss (gamblerss.com)https://gamblerss.com/predict-act-latest-congressional-bill-seeking-to-limit-congress-participation-in-prediction-markets-60274

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