UK FCA weighs lifting its prediction markets ban under a supervised access regime

FCA considers supervised access

The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority is weighing whether to lift its prediction markets ban through a supervised access regime, according to Prediction Authority. The report was published on Oct 14, 2026, at 10:54 PM ET.

The proposal is described as under consideration, not as an approved change. The available summary does not establish whether the FCA will proceed or when a decision might come.

Volume context remains incomplete

Prediction Authority’s summary also points to rising combined monthly volume at Kalshi and Polymarket, citing a starting level of under $5B. However, the summary cuts off before identifying the starting period, the later volume figure or the comparison date.

The full source text was unavailable. As a result, the supplied material does not establish how supervised access would work, which platforms or contracts it might cover, or what conditions participants would face.

What it means for prediction markets

• A review is not an opening: The reported consideration of supervised access does not establish that the UK ban has been lifted.
• Scope and timing remain unresolved: The available material provides no implementation date or eligibility requirements for platforms, contracts or users.
• The volume comparison is incomplete: The under $5B starting figure alone cannot establish the size or pace of growth in combined Kalshi and Polymarket activity.