Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 14, 2026 · 1:54 AM ET

PredictionCircle’s live board showed Yes at 100% for a U.S.-Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026, as of October 14, 2026. According to predictioncircle.com, the displayed probability was unchanged over 24 hours, with $2.6M positioned across 13,219 trades.

A maximum price, but still live

The contract remained marked Live, with resolution listed for October 2026. Its stated condition is a U.S.-Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026; the supplied page does not provide further detail about what would qualify as a permanent agreement.

The 100% reading is therefore a market display, not confirmation in the supplied material that a peace deal has been reached or that the contract has settled. The page said it had last been updated 2 hours ago.

Volume and liquidity tell different stories

According to PredictionCircle, the detailed statistics put total volume at $2.64M, alongside the rounded $2.6M headline figure. The board listed an average trade of $200, liquidity of $0 and a 24-hour change of +0.0%. It also described the activity count inconsistently: 13,219 trades in its overview and 13,219 traders in its commentary.

The platform comparison showed Polymarket at 100%, while Kalshi and PredictIt were both marked TBD. A separate related contract on whether the U.S. would invade Iran before 2027 displayed an 18% probability and $74.0M in volume. That question has a different outcome and deadline from the permanent-peace contract.

What it means for prediction markets

• Pricing is not settlement: The board shows 100% Yes, but the contract is still Live and the supplied material does not establish that its condition has been met.
• Turnover is not available liquidity: The $2.64M volume figure sits alongside $0 listed liquidity, limiting what cumulative activity alone says about current trading conditions.
• Resolution language matters: The page identifies the October 31, 2026 deadline but supplies no detailed criteria for recognizing a permanent peace deal.
• Cross-platform evidence is limited: The comparison lists Polymarket at 100%, with no probability supplied for Kalshi or PredictIt.

Polymarket accounts for 57.8% of U.S. search demand despite Kalshi’s lead in trading, according to Gambling Insider. The snapshot points to a split between search interest and trading activity in prediction markets.

The report, published Oct 14, 2026 at 1:54 AM ET, places Polymarket ahead on the search metric. The available material does not specify the measurement period or how search demand was calculated.

Search interest versus trading activity

Kalshi’s trading dominance is identified in the report’s headline, but the supplied material includes no trading figures. It therefore does not establish the size of Kalshi’s advantage or provide a numerical comparison between the two platforms’ trading activity.

With the full source text unavailable, the finding is narrow: Polymarket leads the reported U.S. search-demand measure, while Kalshi leads on trading. The material does not explain why those rankings differ.

What it means for prediction markets

• Attention and activity are distinct measures. Polymarket’s 57.8% search-demand share should not be read as its share of trading.
• The trading comparison remains unquantified. No supplied figures establish the scale of Kalshi’s lead.
• Methodology matters. Without the search measurement period and calculation method, the snapshot alone cannot establish a trend.