U.S.-Iran permanent peace deal by Oct. 31 priced at 100% on $2.6M positioned

PredictionCircle’s live board showed Yes at 100% for a U.S.-Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026, as of October 14, 2026. According to predictioncircle.com, the displayed probability was unchanged over 24 hours, with $2.6M positioned across 13,219 trades.

A maximum price, but still live

The contract remained marked Live, with resolution listed for October 2026. Its stated condition is a U.S.-Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026; the supplied page does not provide further detail about what would qualify as a permanent agreement.

The 100% reading is therefore a market display, not confirmation in the supplied material that a peace deal has been reached or that the contract has settled. The page said it had last been updated 2 hours ago.

Volume and liquidity tell different stories

According to PredictionCircle, the detailed statistics put total volume at $2.64M, alongside the rounded $2.6M headline figure. The board listed an average trade of $200, liquidity of $0 and a 24-hour change of +0.0%. It also described the activity count inconsistently: 13,219 trades in its overview and 13,219 traders in its commentary.

The platform comparison showed Polymarket at 100%, while Kalshi and PredictIt were both marked TBD. A separate related contract on whether the U.S. would invade Iran before 2027 displayed an 18% probability and $74.0M in volume. That question has a different outcome and deadline from the permanent-peace contract.

What it means for prediction markets

• Pricing is not settlement: The board shows 100% Yes, but the contract is still Live and the supplied material does not establish that its condition has been met.
• Turnover is not available liquidity: The $2.64M volume figure sits alongside $0 listed liquidity, limiting what cumulative activity alone says about current trading conditions.
• Resolution language matters: The page identifies the October 31, 2026 deadline but supplies no detailed criteria for recognizing a permanent peace deal.
• Cross-platform evidence is limited: The comparison lists Polymarket at 100%, with no probability supplied for Kalshi or PredictIt.