Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 13, 2026 · 4:09 PM ET

Graham is the clear favorite in prediction-market pricing for the 2026 South Carolina Senate race, despite a much narrower lead in an InsiderAdvantage survey. According to Action Network, Graham contracts were priced at 86c on both Polymarket and Kalshi.

Andrews contracts stood at 16c on Polymarket and 15c on Kalshi. The reported prices therefore show agreement across the two venues on the favorite, with only a small difference in pricing for Andrews.

A narrow polling lead, a strong market favorite

The InsiderAdvantage survey put Graham at 46% and Andrews at 45%, according to Action Network. That one-point advantage presents a closer picture of voter support than the market prices might initially suggest.

The distinction is important: polling percentages measure support, while election contracts reflect expectations about who will win. The supplied material does not include the survey’s field dates, sample size or margin of error, limiting any assessment of how much weight that result should carry against the market snapshot.

What it means for prediction markets

• Both venues favor Graham strongly: The identical 86c prices show no divergence between Polymarket and Kalshi in the reported Graham contracts.
• Close polling is not a win probability: Graham’s 46% to 45% survey lead cannot be compared directly with contract prices as though they measure the same thing.
• The explanation remains uncertain: The available reporting establishes the contrast between polling and pricing, but does not establish why traders assign Graham such a strong position.

College football outcome markets have recorded more than $6.65 billion in trading from August 23 through Saturday’s games, according to RotoWire, citing Aldrin Research. The dataset spans 9 platforms licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Polymarket’s international operation.

Trading concentrates in two operators

Kalshi accounted for $3.45 billion, while Polymarket’s U.S. and international operations together recorded $1.386 billion. Their combined share was 72.02% of tracked volume. RotoWire compared that concentration with the position DraftKings and FanDuel occupy in online sports betting.

Saturday, October 10, contributed more than $865.9 million in single-market trades. The schedule included Indiana against Nebraska in the Big Ten’s Big Noon Kickoff slot and Georgia’s 20-17 prime-time victory over Alabama on Saban Field. Among the 480 games traded on Kalshi this season, Ohio State-Texas on September 12 led combined outcome and spread volume at more than $60.6 million. Georgia-Alabama ranked first on Polymarket, generating more than $28.8 million.

Smith and Georgia lead award and title pricing

Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has separated from the Heisman Trophy field this month. RotoWire reported a current 55% chance of his receiving the award at the Downtown Athletic Club in New York on December 12, alongside a 57% price on Polymarket. Smith had traded as low as 23.4% on October 2, the day before Ohio State beat Iowa 31-14. His 11 catches for 206 yards and 2 TDs helped drive his price to 47.6% by the end of that day in Iowa City—roughly double the earlier level. His price had been as low as 5% earlier in the season. Miami QB Darian Mensah was second at 11% on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with Notre Dame QB C.J. Carr third on both.

Georgia, now 5-0, moved to No. 1 in this week’s AP Top 25 following its win in Tuscaloosa, which RotoWire characterized as aided by officiating. Kalshi priced the Bulldogs at 20% to win the NCAA Championship at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on January 25, ahead of Ohio State at 17% and Notre Dame at 15%.

Polymarket’s two operations showed different championship assessments. Georgia stood at 24% on Polymarket U.S. but 19% internationally. The U.S. platform placed Notre Dame and Ohio State jointly second at 14%; the international platform ranked Miami second at 16% and Ohio State third at 14%.

NCAA engagement remains preliminary

The NCAA continues to dispute several aspects of prediction-market activity, according to RotoWire. Federal rules allow participation at age 18, compared with a minimum of 21 for state-regulated online sports betting in nearly every state. The organization has also raised concerns about integrity, single-player contracts, manipulation and possible markets involving injuries or coaches losing their jobs.

RotoWire first reported in June that the NCAA was holding informal conversations with operators about their markets and integrity procedures. NCAA Associate Director Mark Hicks, speaking after a panel at SBC Americas, said formal discussions about data-sharing or integrity partnerships had not begun; the exchanges were intended to help the NCAA understand how platforms operate. That engagement contrasts with NCAA President Charlie Baker’s January request that the CFTC suspend all college-sports trading temporarily until appropriate regulations were established. Hicks emphasized that the sector remains young, that operators’ responses to potential problems and cooperation with the NCAA are still uncertain, and that continued dialogue matters.

What it means for prediction markets

• Volume is heavily concentrated: Kalshi and Polymarket captured 72.02% of tracked college football activity, making their markets central to this season’s trading picture.
• Platform prices are not interchangeable: Georgia’s championship pricing ranged from 19% to 24%, while the ordering of its closest challengers differed across venues.
• Player performances can produce sharp repricing: Smith’s move from 23.4% to 47.6% around the Iowa game illustrates how quickly award-market expectations can change.
• Institutional engagement is not an agreement: Informal NCAA discussions have not produced formal data-sharing or integrity partnership talks, leaving the organization’s concerns unresolved.