Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 13, 2026 · 2:39 PM ET

Tight surveys, strong market favorite

Minnesota’s Senate race presents prediction-market readers with two different signals: recent polls show Democrat Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan narrowly ahead of or tied with Republican Michele Tafoya, while market pricing strongly favors a Democratic victory, according to defirate.com.

An InsiderAdvantage survey puts Flanagan at 46% and Tafoya at 45%. That one-point gap falls well inside the poll’s roughly three-point margin of error. A separate KSTP/SurveyUSA survey has both candidates at 42%, with 12% undecided.

Traders remain heavily tilted toward Flanagan

According to defirate.com, Kalshi prices Flanagan’s chance of winning at 86%, with $1.6 million traded. On Polymarket, her implied probability is 89%, alongside $199,150 in volume.

Those prices contrast sharply with the close polling margins, although vote shares and win probabilities measure different things. The surveys describe current voter preferences; the markets assign a likelihood to the eventual winner. The supplied reporting does not establish why traders remain so confident in Flanagan.

The stakes extend to Senate control. Flanagan and Tafoya are seeking the seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith. According to defirate.com, a Republican victory in Minnesota would further complicate Democrats’ already difficult route to a Senate majority.

What it means for prediction markets

• The disagreement is substantial: Polling shows a one-point Flanagan lead or a tie, versus market-implied win probabilities of 86% on Kalshi and 89% on Polymarket.
• Polling uncertainty remains important: InsiderAdvantage’s margin of error exceeds Flanagan’s lead, while KSTP/SurveyUSA reports 12% undecided.
• Platform differences provide context: Kalshi reports $1.6 million traded, compared with $199,150 on Polymarket; both nevertheless strongly favor Flanagan.
• Minnesota has broader consequences: A Tafoya victory would flip Tina Smith’s Democratic seat and make a Democratic Senate majority harder to achieve.

Google leads the Polymarket market on which company will have the best AI model at the end of October, but the supplied readings differ. The headline published Oct. 13, 2026, at 2:39 PM ET puts Google at 73% and Anthropic at 27%; the accompanying DeFi Rate page lists them at 72% and 23%, respectively.

Google leads across both readings

According to DeFi Rate’s snapshot, observed Oct. 13 between 9:09 AM and 2:13 PM ET, Google traded at 73c. The snapshot recorded $22K in 24-hour volume, with Google the most-traded outcome at $11K.

The supplied DeFi Rate page reports that Google made the largest gain over the past week on Polymarket, rising 5 points to 72%. Anthropic fell 7 points to 23%. The summary also describes a 5-point increase for Google, although its truncated text does not identify the comparison period.

DeFi Rate additionally lists an ask-price illustration: a $100 purchase on Polymarket would return $137 if correct, before fees. That is the payout shown in the supplied material, rather than a separately verified current quote.

What it means for prediction markets

• The direction is consistent, the exact spread is not. Both readings favor Google, but the headline’s 73%–27% split differs from the page’s 72%–23% figures. They should not be treated as one synchronized quote.
• Trading was concentrated in Google. Its $11K in 24-hour volume accounted for half of the snapshot’s $22K total.
• These are market expectations, not a technical verdict. The supplied material does not specify the benchmark or resolution criteria for determining the best AI model at the end of October.