Minnesota Senate: polls say toss-up, markets say comfortable Democratic hold

Tight surveys, strong market favorite

Minnesota’s Senate race presents prediction-market readers with two different signals: recent polls show Democrat Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan narrowly ahead of or tied with Republican Michele Tafoya, while market pricing strongly favors a Democratic victory, according to defirate.com.

An InsiderAdvantage survey puts Flanagan at 46% and Tafoya at 45%. That one-point gap falls well inside the poll’s roughly three-point margin of error. A separate KSTP/SurveyUSA survey has both candidates at 42%, with 12% undecided.

Traders remain heavily tilted toward Flanagan

According to defirate.com, Kalshi prices Flanagan’s chance of winning at 86%, with $1.6 million traded. On Polymarket, her implied probability is 89%, alongside $199,150 in volume.

Those prices contrast sharply with the close polling margins, although vote shares and win probabilities measure different things. The surveys describe current voter preferences; the markets assign a likelihood to the eventual winner. The supplied reporting does not establish why traders remain so confident in Flanagan.

The stakes extend to Senate control. Flanagan and Tafoya are seeking the seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith. According to defirate.com, a Republican victory in Minnesota would further complicate Democrats’ already difficult route to a Senate majority.

What it means for prediction markets

• The disagreement is substantial: Polling shows a one-point Flanagan lead or a tie, versus market-implied win probabilities of 86% on Kalshi and 89% on Polymarket.
• Polling uncertainty remains important: InsiderAdvantage’s margin of error exceeds Flanagan’s lead, while KSTP/SurveyUSA reports 12% undecided.
• Platform differences provide context: Kalshi reports $1.6 million traded, compared with $199,150 on Polymarket; both nevertheless strongly favor Flanagan.
• Minnesota has broader consequences: A Tafoya victory would flip Tina Smith’s Democratic seat and make a Democratic Senate majority harder to achieve.