Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 13, 2026 · 1:39 PM ET

The Golden Knights were priced as modest favorites against the Predators in the supplied Oct. 13, 2026, 1:39 PM ET snapshot of Polymarket’s NHL moneyline. Vegas stood at 55c, implying a 55% probability of winning, against Nashville at 46c ahead of the 8:45 PM ET game.

Prices and volume

The headline snapshot put trading volume at $19.2K. The supplied Polymarket page displays different figures: $24.6K for the moneyline and $25,868 across the event, rounded to $25.87K in its header. Those figures should not be treated as a single, synchronized observation.

According to Polymarket, the market opened on Sep. 16, 2026, at 11:30 AM ET and lists Oct. 13, 2026, as its end date. The contract concerns this individual matchup, rather than either team’s broader season performance.

How settlement works

Polymarket’s moneyline rules award the outcome to whichever team wins, counting overtime and shootouts. For settlement purposes, a shootout adds one goal to the winning side’s score.

Separate contracts on the page apply different tests. One requires the Golden Knights to win by 2 or more goals; any other result settles to the Predators side. Four total-goals contracts set their respective “Over” thresholds at 5, 6, 7 and 8 combined goals, with lower totals settling to “Under.”

According to Polymarket, a postponement keeps the markets open until the game is played. A complete cancellation without a make-up game instead produces a 50-50 settlement.

What it means for prediction markets

• Vegas has a modest edge in the supplied snapshot. The 55c and 46c quotes total 101c, so they are not a normalized probability split.
• Volume needs context. The $19.2K headline figure differs from the page’s $24.6K moneyline volume and $25,868 event total; the material does not establish synchronized timestamps for those readings.
• Winning and covering are different outcomes. A Golden Knights victory satisfies the moneyline, but the separate margin contract requires a win by at least 2 goals.
• Settlement extends beyond regulation. Overtime, shootouts and cancellation provisions can determine the final contract outcome.

KMT leads the market

The Kuomintang (KMT) carried an implied probability of 82.5% in Polymarket’s Taiwan local-election party-winner market, according to polymarkettrader.com’s October 13, 2026 snapshot at 12:50 UTC. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) stood at 17.3%, down 1.1 percentage points over 24 hours.

Total trading volume reached $251.5K, including $2.6K over the preceding 24 hours, with reported liquidity of $145.1K. Outcome-level turnover was $98.7K for KMT, $79.1K for DPP and $73.8K for the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). The source gives inconsistent TPP probabilities: its structured data shows less than 0.1%, while its displayed FAQ says 0.1%.

Settlement turns on local-government wins

Taiwan’s local elections are scheduled for November 28, 2026. According to the rules summarized by polymarkettrader.com, the contract measures which party’s officially nominated, party-registered candidates win the most qualifying mayoral and magistrate contests—not its share of the overall vote. Independent candidates do not contribute to any party’s total.

The covered mayoral contests are Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City and Chiayi City. Covered magistrate contests are Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County and Kinmen County.

A party secures the outcome when no rival can mathematically match or exceed its number of wins. A tie goes to the party whose English name, as listed in the market group, ranks first alphabetically. Settlement uses official election results, with a consensus of credible reporting as the stated source; ambiguity is resolved through Taiwan’s Central Election Commission.

Although November 29, 2026 is the listed market end date, the rules allow the contract to remain open until a winner emerges or all relevant results become official. If any results remain unknown at June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, available results determine the winner; if none are known, the outcome is “Other.”

What it means for prediction markets

• KMT is the clear priced favorite, not a confirmed winner. The 82.5% figure reflects YES-share pricing rather than an election result.
• Contract scope matters. Settlement depends on wins in the specified local-government contests, with explicit exclusions for independents and an alphabetical tie-break.
• The snapshot is not a live trading quote. Polymarkettrader.com updates twice daily and says its displayed prices are not executable quotes.
• The listed end date is not a settlement guarantee. Polymarket’s controlling rules, including the June 30, 2027 deadline, govern resolution.