Taiwan's local-election party market prices the Kuomintang at 82.5% on $251.5K traded

KMT leads the market

The Kuomintang (KMT) carried an implied probability of 82.5% in Polymarket’s Taiwan local-election party-winner market, according to polymarkettrader.com’s October 13, 2026 snapshot at 12:50 UTC. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) stood at 17.3%, down 1.1 percentage points over 24 hours.

Total trading volume reached $251.5K, including $2.6K over the preceding 24 hours, with reported liquidity of $145.1K. Outcome-level turnover was $98.7K for KMT, $79.1K for DPP and $73.8K for the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). The source gives inconsistent TPP probabilities: its structured data shows less than 0.1%, while its displayed FAQ says 0.1%.

Settlement turns on local-government wins

Taiwan’s local elections are scheduled for November 28, 2026. According to the rules summarized by polymarkettrader.com, the contract measures which party’s officially nominated, party-registered candidates win the most qualifying mayoral and magistrate contests—not its share of the overall vote. Independent candidates do not contribute to any party’s total.

The covered mayoral contests are Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City and Chiayi City. Covered magistrate contests are Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County and Kinmen County.

A party secures the outcome when no rival can mathematically match or exceed its number of wins. A tie goes to the party whose English name, as listed in the market group, ranks first alphabetically. Settlement uses official election results, with a consensus of credible reporting as the stated source; ambiguity is resolved through Taiwan’s Central Election Commission.

Although November 29, 2026 is the listed market end date, the rules allow the contract to remain open until a winner emerges or all relevant results become official. If any results remain unknown at June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, available results determine the winner; if none are known, the outcome is “Other.”

What it means for prediction markets

• KMT is the clear priced favorite, not a confirmed winner. The 82.5% figure reflects YES-share pricing rather than an election result.
• Contract scope matters. Settlement depends on wins in the specified local-government contests, with explicit exclusions for independents and an alphabetical tie-break.
• The snapshot is not a live trading quote. Polymarkettrader.com updates twice daily and says its displayed prices are not executable quotes.
• The listed end date is not a settlement guarantee. Polymarket’s controlling rules, including the June 30, 2027 deadline, govern resolution.