Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 13, 2026 · 10:09 AM ET

Bybit has introduced POLYMARKETUSDT, a pre-IPO perpetual contract offering traders a way to speculate on Polymarket’s valuation ahead of any IPO. According to Coinfomania, the exchange announced the launch in a tweet on Oct 13, 2026, with trading available immediately.

A derivative tied to the prediction-market operator

The listing makes Polymarket itself the subject of speculation. Polymarket is a decentralized prediction-market platform where users wager on event outcomes, including politics and sports; the new Bybit product instead targets expectations about the platform’s own value.

According to Coinfomania, the addition extends Bybit’s derivatives offering as interest in crypto derivatives grows. The outlet described the broader crypto market as showing uneven momentum across major assets, but supplied no specific trading-volume figures for POLYMARKETUSDT.

Limited launch data

Coinfomania displayed a POLYMARKET price of $0 and no reported trading volume. Those launch-stage figures do not establish an observable valuation for Polymarket or demonstrate demand for the contract.

The report noted that perpetual contracts generally attract traders seeking leveraged exposure. However, it did not provide this product’s leverage limits, pricing methodology or other detailed contract terms. The supplied material also gives no IPO date or confirmed listing plan for Polymarket.

What it means for prediction markets

• A different object of speculation: POLYMARKETUSDT concerns Polymarket’s valuation, rather than the political, sporting or other outcomes traded on its platform.
• Sentiment remains difficult to assess: With no reported volume and a displayed price of $0, the available launch data offer little basis for judging trader interest or liquidity.
• An IPO is not established: A pre-IPO contract does not, on the information provided, confirm whether or when Polymarket will go public.
• Product mechanics matter: The missing pricing and leverage details limit what readers can infer about how the contract translates valuation expectations into trading prices.

Contract prices a charge at 19%

Polymarket’s new contract on whether Rep. Ilhan Omar will face federal charges by December 31 was priced at 19%, according to the supplied headline published Oct 13, 2026, at 10:09 AM ET. That puts the market’s initial assessment well below an even chance of charges before the deadline.

According to the event description on polymarket.com, Homeland Security Investigations agents carried out a court-authorized search of Omar’s Washington-area home on October 12, 2026. The description links that search to an ongoing DOJ criminal investigation involving immigration documents and possible false statements, fraud, and conspiracy connected to her family’s entry and naturalization process.

Investigation is not a charging decision

No charges have been filed, according to polymarket.com. Omar denies wrongdoing and has characterized the search as politically motivated. The supplied material contains no separate reporting or official documents corroborating the market page’s account.

The reported search comes weeks ahead of the November midterms, when Omar is seeking reelection in Minnesota’s 5th District. According to polymarket.com, Trump administration officials had publicly referenced the investigation before the search.

What it means for prediction markets

• The deadline is central: The 19% price concerns charges by December 31, not whether an investigation continues or allegations are ultimately proved.
• Investigative activity and charges are distinct: A search does not itself establish that prosecutors will file charges. Subsequent indictments, grand jury developments, or further investigative steps are the developments to monitor.
• Source quality matters: The investigation details supplied here come from Polymarket’s event description, rather than independently corroborated reporting.
• Timing adds political context: Developments may arrive around Omar’s reelection bid and the congressional calendar, but those dates alone do not establish a charging timetable.

Minnesota has taken the lead in the NFC North prediction markets, with the Vikings at 43% on Kalshi and 42% on Polymarket in the Oct. 13, 2026 reading. The accompanying market summary puts Minnesota up 5 percentage points, ahead of Detroit, Chicago and Green Bay.

Minnesota leads on both venues

Detroit stands second at 28% on Kalshi and 27% on Polymarket. Chicago follows at 20% and 22%, respectively, after a 10-point decline, while Green Bay is fourth at 12% and 10%. Both exchanges therefore show the same ordering of the division’s four teams.

According to iPredicta, changes measure the movement in the average price across the two venues since its Oct. 6, 2026 reading. Minnesota’s gain and Chicago’s decline describe that combined measure, rather than a separate move of the same size on each exchange.

A mismatch in the source commentary

The latest figures supplied with the story conflict with iPredicta’s accompanying NFC North commentary, which still describes Detroit as the leader and Minnesota as an outsider. The Oct. 13 summary instead places the Vikings first on both venues; the material does not explain that discrepancy.

According to iPredicta, the NFC North prices were captured on Oct. 13, 2026, at 12:24 UTC. It reported $95,548 in lifetime trading volume for the Polymarket market and a total book probability of 100.5%. That volume is specific to Polymarket, not a combined figure for both exchanges, and the reported book total is separate from the rounded team percentages supplied in the summary.

What it means for prediction markets

• A shared favorite, not a majority probability: Minnesota leads on both venues, but its 43% and 42% readings remain below 50%.
• The weekly movement is substantial: The supplied changes show Minnesota gaining 5 points while Chicago loses 10, measured using the two-venue average.
• Venue differences are limited: Both exchanges rank all four teams identically, with each team’s quoted probabilities differing by no more than 2 percentage points.
• The timestamp matters: The latest numerical summary and the source’s narrative disagree about the leader, making the dated figures essential to interpreting this snapshot.