NFC North flips to Minnesota: Vikings lead at 43% on Kalshi, 42% on Polymarket

Minnesota has taken the lead in the NFC North prediction markets, with the Vikings at 43% on Kalshi and 42% on Polymarket in the Oct. 13, 2026 reading. The accompanying market summary puts Minnesota up 5 percentage points, ahead of Detroit, Chicago and Green Bay.

Minnesota leads on both venues

Detroit stands second at 28% on Kalshi and 27% on Polymarket. Chicago follows at 20% and 22%, respectively, after a 10-point decline, while Green Bay is fourth at 12% and 10%. Both exchanges therefore show the same ordering of the division’s four teams.

According to iPredicta, changes measure the movement in the average price across the two venues since its Oct. 6, 2026 reading. Minnesota’s gain and Chicago’s decline describe that combined measure, rather than a separate move of the same size on each exchange.

A mismatch in the source commentary

The latest figures supplied with the story conflict with iPredicta’s accompanying NFC North commentary, which still describes Detroit as the leader and Minnesota as an outsider. The Oct. 13 summary instead places the Vikings first on both venues; the material does not explain that discrepancy.

According to iPredicta, the NFC North prices were captured on Oct. 13, 2026, at 12:24 UTC. It reported $95,548 in lifetime trading volume for the Polymarket market and a total book probability of 100.5%. That volume is specific to Polymarket, not a combined figure for both exchanges, and the reported book total is separate from the rounded team percentages supplied in the summary.

What it means for prediction markets

• A shared favorite, not a majority probability: Minnesota leads on both venues, but its 43% and 42% readings remain below 50%.
• The weekly movement is substantial: The supplied changes show Minnesota gaining 5 points while Chicago loses 10, measured using the two-venue average.
• Venue differences are limited: Both exchanges rank all four teams identically, with each team’s quoted probabilities differing by no more than 2 percentage points.
• The timestamp matters: The latest numerical summary and the source’s narrative disagree about the leader, making the dated figures essential to interpreting this snapshot.