Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 13, 2026 · 8:39 AM ET

Macquarie forecasts $186.8B in U.S. prediction-market taker volume for 2026, according to Gambling Insider. The projection provides a full-year benchmark for a sector whose September activity was heavily concentrated in sports.

September volume and market share

In an Oct. 9 research note, Macquarie estimated September industry taker volume at $20.1B, according to Gambling Insider.

Kalshi accounted for 67% of that volume. The figure places the platform at the center of the September market, although the available summary does not provide shares for its competitors.

Sports dominates activity

Sports represented about $17B of September’s taker volume, according to Gambling Insider’s account of the note. That makes sports the overwhelming source of activity within the reported monthly total.

The available material does not include Macquarie’s forecasting methodology or a breakdown of the remaining volume. The $186.8B figure is a forecast for 2026, not a reported full-year result.

What it means for prediction markets

• A scale benchmark: Macquarie’s $186.8B forecast offers a reference point for assessing reported U.S. taker volume through the remainder of 2026.
• Platform concentration: Kalshi’s 67% September share makes its activity particularly important when interpreting industry-wide volume.
• Category concentration: With sports contributing about $17B of the $20.1B monthly total, aggregate volume should not be treated as a measure of participation in election or other non-sports markets.

Connecticut becomes the fifth excluded state

Google has added Connecticut to its prediction-market advertising exclusions, bringing the number of states carved out to five, according to the supplied headline accompanying a Gambling Insider source link.

The update was published on Oct 13, 2026, at 8:39 AM ET. The available material identifies Connecticut as the latest addition but does not name the other four states.

An advertising restriction, not a trading determination

The reported change concerns Google’s advertising policy. The supplied material does not establish whether it affects access to prediction-market platforms or the legal status of trading in Connecticut.

The Gambling Insider page text was unavailable, and the accompanying summary provides no further policy details. The effective date, Google’s rationale and the precise scope of the exclusion therefore remain unconfirmed from the material provided.

What it means for prediction markets

• Advertising reach: Connecticut is now the fifth state identified as excluded under Google’s prediction-market advertising policy.
• Limited regulatory signal: An advertising exclusion alone does not establish a trading ban or a new state regulatory action.
• Details to watch: The policy’s effective date, affected advertising categories and explanation would help clarify its significance for prediction-market operators.