Macquarie forecasts $186.8B in U.S. prediction-market taker volume for 2026

Macquarie forecasts $186.8B in U.S. prediction-market taker volume for 2026, according to Gambling Insider. The projection provides a full-year benchmark for a sector whose September activity was heavily concentrated in sports.

September volume and market share

In an Oct. 9 research note, Macquarie estimated September industry taker volume at $20.1B, according to Gambling Insider.

Kalshi accounted for 67% of that volume. The figure places the platform at the center of the September market, although the available summary does not provide shares for its competitors.

Sports dominates activity

Sports represented about $17B of September’s taker volume, according to Gambling Insider’s account of the note. That makes sports the overwhelming source of activity within the reported monthly total.

The available material does not include Macquarie’s forecasting methodology or a breakdown of the remaining volume. The $186.8B figure is a forecast for 2026, not a reported full-year result.

What it means for prediction markets

• A scale benchmark: Macquarie’s $186.8B forecast offers a reference point for assessing reported U.S. taker volume through the remainder of 2026.
• Platform concentration: Kalshi’s 67% September share makes its activity particularly important when interpreting industry-wide volume.
• Category concentration: With sports contributing about $17B of the $20.1B monthly total, aggregate volume should not be treated as a measure of participation in election or other non-sports markets.