Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 13, 2026 · 3:39 AM ET

San Francisco moves ahead

San Francisco leads the Super Bowl LXI futures market at about 12% across Kalshi and Polymarket, according to defirate.com. Its implied probability has risen 3 points in seven days.

Buffalo and the Rams are close behind, each at about 11%. That leaves the 49ers with a narrow advantage rather than a substantial gap over their nearest challengers.

Prices differ by venue and measure

Defirate.com lists San Francisco at roughly 1 in 8, with an equivalent odds figure of +708. Its venue-specific figures show Polymarket at 12.9¢ and Polymarket US at 12.5¢.

Those figures are not directly comparable execution prices: Kalshi and Polymarket US display the last trade, while Polymarket displays a price available to buy. According to defirate.com, $100 placed on Polymarket at the ask would return $775 if correct, before fees.

What it means for prediction markets

• The lead remains slim. San Francisco’s roughly 12% probability puts it only slightly ahead of Buffalo and the Rams, both around 11%.
• The weekly move is meaningful but not decisive. A 3-point increase in seven days has put the 49ers on top, while their probability remains roughly 1 in 8.
• Price conventions matter. Comparing a last-traded price with a current buy price can obscure differences between venues; the cited payout also excludes fees.

A Polymarket trader lost roughly $146,700 wagered on Philadelphia after Jacksonville won 19-17 in London, according to a coinspectator.com summary. The result turned on a last-second 57-yard field goal.

A late reversal

The trader had been close to receiving a payout of about $623,449 before the decisive kick, according to the summary. Instead, the Philadelphia position ended in a loss.

The roughly $146,700 stake and the about $623,449 potential payout represent different measures of the position. The former was the amount wagered; the latter was the payout the trader had been close to securing, not the amount lost.

Limited detail on the position

The available material identifies the platform as Polymarket but does not name the trader or provide the position’s purchase price or timing. The full source text was unavailable, limiting what can be established about how the wager was built.

The reported outcome is clear: Jacksonville’s last-second field goal settled the game at 19-17, reversing the Philadelphia bettor’s prospects at the end.

What it means for prediction markets

• Late-game exposure can remain decisive: A single scoring play changed the outcome for a position carrying roughly $146,700 in stakes.
• Potential payout is not realized value: The about $623,449 payout was contingent on Philadelphia winning.
• The trade cannot be fully reconstructed: Without entry prices or timing, the available account does not establish the trader’s implied probability at purchase or how the market priced the closing seconds.