Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 13, 2026 · 1:54 AM ET

CPI and the October 28 Fed decision

The market snapshot published Oct 13, 2026 at 1:54 AM ET puts inflation and the Federal Reserve at the center of the watch ahead of Wednesday’s CPI release.

According to the supplied summary, Polymarket’s October 28 FOMC market showed approximately 84% for no change and approximately 19% for a hike, with roughly $32.1M traded. Those reported percentages exceed 100% in total; the summary does not explain the discrepancy.

The CPI market was much closer: a 3.7% print stood at 44%, compared with 43% for 3.6%. That one-percentage-point gap leaves little separation between the two listed outcomes, though the summary does not provide the full set of contracts.

Political pricing offered a separate reference point, with Senate control going to Democrats holding steady at 62%. The summary’s House reference is incomplete, so it provides no usable figure for that market. No source outlet or links were supplied.

What it means for prediction markets

• Inflation pricing is closely divided. The listed CPI outcomes are nearly level, making the distinction between a 3.7% and 3.6% release a key settlement question for those contracts.
• No change leads the reported Fed pricing. The approximately 84% reading is substantially above the approximately 19% hike reading, but the figures should not be treated as a normalized probability distribution.
• Political coverage is partial. The Senate-to-Democrats figure is available at 62%; the incomplete House reference does not support a comparison across chambers.

Bitcoin slips below $82,000

Bitcoin traded at $81,969.45, down 2.1% over 24 hours, as the cryptocurrency market’s capitalization declined 2% to $2.85 trillion. According to coinstats.app, citing CoinGecko figures recorded on October 13, 2026, at 1:30 AM UTC, total trading volume reached $84.2 billion.

Ethereum underperformed Bitcoin, falling 3.7% to $2,450.54, with a market capitalization near $298.75 billion. Bitcoin’s trading volume was about $29.74 billion and its capitalization around $1.647 trillion. Bitcoin accounted for 57.8% of the market, compared with Ethereum’s 10.5%.

Risk appetite weakens unevenly

DeFi sustained a larger setback: its market capitalization dropped 5.8% to $82 billion, with about $6 billion in volume and a 2.9% market share, according to coinstats.app. Stablecoin capitalization was comparatively steady at $292 billion, down 0.1%, while trading volume was about $79.4 billion. Tokenized Assets and Real World Assets (RWA) were the strongest categories over the preceding day.

Sentiment deteriorated without crossing into fear. Alternative.me’s Fear and Greed Index registered 57 on October 13, still classified as Greed, compared with 69 yesterday, 73 a week earlier and 61 a month earlier, according to coinstats.app. Smaller tokens showed much wider price swings: Hood Sword Inu (HOODINU) rose 78.5% to $0.08933, while AI Rig Complex (ARC) lost 42.3% to $0.03628.

Regulatory and inflation dates in focus

South Korea’s Financial Intelligence Unit announced on October 13 that 27 unregistered overseas exchanges, including KuCoin and MEXC, would face website access blocks or closures, according to coinstats.app. Separately, TD Cowen’s Jaret Seiberg expects the CFTC to propose rules for leveraged crypto trading around early 2027, with final rules potentially delayed until early 2028.

The outlet also reported median Wall Street forecasts for September core CPI of 0.21% month-on-month, versus 0.29% in August, with energy prices expected to lift overall CPI to 0.58%. Those figures are forecasts rather than reported inflation results—a distinction relevant to contracts tied to the release.

What it means for prediction markets

• Price thresholds: The Bitcoin snapshot puts it below $82,000, but it does not establish the outcome of a contract with a different observation time or settlement source.
• Relative performance: Ethereum’s 3.7% decline and DeFi’s 5.8% contraction show that Bitcoin’s 2.1% fall does not capture the full variation across crypto assets.
• Regulatory timing: The CFTC dates reflect Jaret Seiberg’s expectations, not an announced agency timetable. South Korea’s October 13 announcement is a separate, concrete regulatory development.
• Evidence limits: The supplied material contains no completed spot Bitcoin ETF flow figures or live prediction-market odds, so neither can be assessed from this update.