Market watch into Wednesday's CPI

CPI and the October 28 Fed decision

The market snapshot published Oct 13, 2026 at 1:54 AM ET puts inflation and the Federal Reserve at the center of the watch ahead of Wednesday’s CPI release.

According to the supplied summary, Polymarket’s October 28 FOMC market showed approximately 84% for no change and approximately 19% for a hike, with roughly $32.1M traded. Those reported percentages exceed 100% in total; the summary does not explain the discrepancy.

The CPI market was much closer: a 3.7% print stood at 44%, compared with 43% for 3.6%. That one-percentage-point gap leaves little separation between the two listed outcomes, though the summary does not provide the full set of contracts.

Political pricing offered a separate reference point, with Senate control going to Democrats holding steady at 62%. The summary’s House reference is incomplete, so it provides no usable figure for that market. No source outlet or links were supplied.

What it means for prediction markets

• Inflation pricing is closely divided. The listed CPI outcomes are nearly level, making the distinction between a 3.7% and 3.6% release a key settlement question for those contracts.
• No change leads the reported Fed pricing. The approximately 84% reading is substantially above the approximately 19% hike reading, but the figures should not be treated as a normalized probability distribution.
• Political coverage is partial. The Senate-to-Democrats figure is available at 62%; the incomplete House reference does not support a comparison across chambers.