Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 12, 2026 · 8:54 AM ET

Funding talks point to higher valuations

Kalshi and Polymarket are each reportedly discussing new funding that could put their valuations near $20B, according to a Wall Street Journal report cited by gamblerss.com.

The report recirculated overnight ahead of the Oct 12, 2026 publication. The discussions are described as early-stage, so the reported valuations remain potential outcomes rather than completed financing terms.

For Kalshi, a valuation near $20B would represent an increase from the $11B valuation attached to its Series E in December. The available summary does not provide a comparable earlier valuation for Polymarket.

The source page was unavailable, and the supplied summary is incomplete. It does not establish how much either venue is seeking to raise, who might invest or when an agreement could be reached.

What it means for prediction markets

• Talks are not completed deals: The report signals possible funding outcomes for both venues, not confirmed rounds or final valuations.
• Kalshi has a stated benchmark: Its $11B Series E valuation in December provides a comparison for the proposed near-$20B level; the supplied material offers no equivalent benchmark for Polymarket.
• Key details remain unresolved: Funding amounts, investor participation and timing are not established by the available material.

Prediction-market trading volume totaled $5.0B over 24 hours across 9 exchanges, according to DeFi Rate. The reported total marked a decline, although the supplied summary did not include a comparison figure.

Trading activity and political odds

The update, published Oct 12, 2026 at 8:54 AM ET, provided an aggregate volume figure without a breakdown by exchange or individual market.

According to DeFi Rate, Democrats stood at 62% in the Senate market and 90% in the House market. Those readings put the House probability 28 percentage points above the Senate probability.

The source page text was unavailable. The supplied summary did not specify the political contracts’ settlement terms or earlier probabilities, limiting conclusions about how those markets had moved.

What it means for prediction markets

• The $5.0B figure describes activity across 9 exchanges, not the volume or liquidity available in any particular contract.
• The reported probabilities favor Democrats more strongly in the House market than in the Senate market, but they are not guarantees of either outcome.
• Without prior readings or market-level volume data, the update does not establish a connection between the volume decline and political repricing.

Candidate-withdrawal contracts draw attention

Contracts tied to candidate withdrawals are attracting insider-trading scrutiny as midterm prediction markets come under examination, according to a bonus.com summary published Oct 12, 2026, at 8:54 AM ET.

The summary identifies a new analysis by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective that flags contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket. CNN first reported the analysis, according to bonus.com.

The coverage frames the issue around “knowable markets,” with candidate withdrawals the only contract category identified in the available summary. It also says the analysis had been recirculated in the preceding hour.

The source page was unavailable, and the supplied summary is incomplete. It provides no specific contracts, transactions or findings establishing insider trading, leaving the scope and supporting evidence of the analysis unclear.

What it means for prediction markets

• The scrutiny concerns potentially sensitive event information. Candidate-withdrawal contracts are the identified focus; the available material does not establish whether anyone traded with advance knowledge.
• Both platforms are named, but details are missing. The summary flags Kalshi and Polymarket without providing a basis for comparing their contracts or conduct.
• An analytical flag is not a proven violation. The full analysis and underlying reporting would be needed to assess the allegations and their implications.