Midterm "knowable markets" face insider-trading scrutiny

Candidate-withdrawal contracts draw attention

Contracts tied to candidate withdrawals are attracting insider-trading scrutiny as midterm prediction markets come under examination, according to a bonus.com summary published Oct 12, 2026, at 8:54 AM ET.

The summary identifies a new analysis by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective that flags contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket. CNN first reported the analysis, according to bonus.com.

The coverage frames the issue around “knowable markets,” with candidate withdrawals the only contract category identified in the available summary. It also says the analysis had been recirculated in the preceding hour.

The source page was unavailable, and the supplied summary is incomplete. It provides no specific contracts, transactions or findings establishing insider trading, leaving the scope and supporting evidence of the analysis unclear.

What it means for prediction markets

• The scrutiny concerns potentially sensitive event information. Candidate-withdrawal contracts are the identified focus; the available material does not establish whether anyone traded with advance knowledge.
• Both platforms are named, but details are missing. The summary flags Kalshi and Polymarket without providing a basis for comparing their contracts or conduct.
• An analytical flag is not a proven violation. The full analysis and underlying reporting would be needed to assess the allegations and their implications.