Infiniti Intelligence Hourly Briefing — Oct 12, 2026 · 3:54 AM ET

Democratic sweep leads

A Democratic sweep is the leading outcome in Kalshi’s 2026 midterm congressional balance-of-power market, at 61%, according to defirate.com. The figures were reported as of Oct 12, 2026 · 3:54 AM ET.

The next outcome is a Democratic House paired with a Republican Senate, at 30%. That puts the split-control scenario 31 percentage points behind a Democratic sweep.

Comparing the outcomes

A Republican sweep stands at 11%, according to the supplied summary. Among the three listed outcomes, traders therefore assign the highest probability to Democrats controlling both chambers and the lowest to Republicans doing so.

The reported figures total 102%. The supplied material does not explain that total or provide pricing history, so the snapshot does not establish whether any outcome has recently gained or lost ground.

What it means for prediction markets

• Clear leader, not a certainty: The 61% Democratic-sweep figure makes it the favourite among the listed outcomes, rather than a settled result.
• Split control remains significant: The 30% reading for a Democratic House and Republican Senate is the nearest listed alternative.
• Snapshot limits matter: With the figures totaling 102% and no historical comparison supplied, readers should distinguish the reported market ranking from a normalized probability distribution or a trend.

A Manifold market on whether AI will become a central issue in the 2026 midterms rose to 63% YES, according to tech-insider.org. The report was published Oct 12, 2026 · 3:54 AM ET.

About 28% of the market’s lifetime volume traded in a day, according to the outlet’s summary. That concentrates a substantial share of its activity into a short period, although the available material does not give the previous probability or total trading volume.

Policy and polling in focus

The summary links the move to Sen. Kelly’s worker-protection bill and shifting Pew polling on AI and jobs. It does not provide the bill’s provisions, the polling figures or evidence establishing how much either development contributed to the repricing.

The summary also mentions roughly $55.7M, but cuts off before identifying what that amount represents. The full source text was unavailable, limiting what can be established about that figure and the broader story.

What it means for prediction markets

• The contract concerns political prominence. The 63% YES reading addresses whether AI becomes a central midterm issue—not whether a particular bill passes or a candidate wins.
• Activity was unusually concentrated within the market’s own history. About 28% of lifetime volume occurred in a day, but the missing total volume and trader count limit conclusions about the breadth of participation.
• Definitions remain important. The supplied material does not include the contract’s resolution criteria, leaving unclear how “central” will be judged.

IG Group CEO Breon Corcoran is challenging the usefulness of the trading-volume records highlighted by Kalshi and Polymarket, arguing that net gaming revenue offers a better measure of the sector’s economics. According to Finance Magnates, he addressed analysts on Thursday at a seminar about Underdog, the US prediction markets operator IG is acquiring for up to $1.3 billion.

Volume and revenue tell different stories

Corcoran illustrated the gap with a 100-leg parlay: a customer’s $1 stake can translate into thousands, or even tens of thousands, of dollars in notional value. He said handle—the amount customers actually stake—is closer to listed-company reporting terminology, but identified net gaming revenue as the key measure. Kalshi surpassed $100 billion in lifetime notional volume in June, supported by World Cup markets; the privately held company raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation in May. Polymarket is also private.

Corcoran said IG was currently the only public company discussing prediction markets revenue, while acknowledging that Robinhood had previously disclosed it. Robinhood’s second-quarter event-contract revenue reached $156 million, more than ten times its year-earlier level, according to Finance Magnates.

Underdog’s growth comes with margin questions

Underdog co-founder and Chief Executive Jeremy Levine reported third-quarter net revenue of $105 million, an increase of 118% from a year earlier, alongside a 165% rise in handle per customer. World Cup matches and an unusually weak margin comparison helped those results, he said. Underdog put its 2025 net revenue at $441 million. Responding to Deutsche Bank analyst David McCann’s question about lower margins on newer prediction products, Levine said rapid handle growth would not always coincide with improving margins; he would accept three times the handle at half the margin.

The acquisition agreement reached in July provides for $1.1 billion upfront and an earn-out of up to $200 million linked to 2026 revenue. IG Chief Financial Officer Clifford Abrahams said the initial payment represented 2.4 times Underdog’s net revenue for the 12 months to June. He said prediction markets and daily fantasy sports would account for 27% of combined group revenue, while the US share would increase to 41% from 19%. Corcoran described Underdog’s typical customers as men aged 20 to 40 who also trade other asset classes.

Exchange ownership and IG’s next steps

Underdog opened its own exchange in July and holds all three federal registrations required to broker, list and clear contracts. Other operators have also taken steps toward exchange infrastructure: DraftKings submitted its first event-contract templates for DKeX in May, while Robinhood and Susquehanna acquired MIAXdx in January and renamed it Rothera, giving Robinhood its own licensed exchange and clearinghouse, Finance Magnates reported.

The seminar followed IG’s disclosure a week earlier that third-quarter revenue declined about 14% year over year. Retention in its over-the-counter business fell to around 70%, against an average of about 80% since mid-2025. IG is scheduled to outline its strategy for the existing business in London on October 22.

What it means for prediction markets

• Notional records are not revenue records. Corcoran’s parlay example highlights why headline activity figures alone cannot establish an operator’s economic value.
• Growth comparisons need context. Underdog’s reported expansion benefited from World Cup activity and a weak prior-year margin period; rising handle does not necessarily imply rising margins.
• Revenue mix matters for IG. The proposed acquisition would give prediction markets and daily fantasy sports a 27% share of combined revenue, making their performance material to the group.
• Infrastructure is another measure of expansion. Underdog’s registrations, DraftKings’ filings and Robinhood’s exchange acquisition provide milestones distinct from notional trading totals.